Better Late Than Never: Panthers/Hurricanes Recap

Stats don't care about your feelings, but they can validate them

In what has been a post-season full of five-gamers, both Conference Finals continued that trend. As you could imagine, I was more focused on the Carolina/Florida series and have no shortage of stray thoughts about how that disaster of a series unfolded for the Hurricanes. I didn’t pay too close attention to Dallas/Edmonton until I tracked it, but there are some interesting things to dive into there at the mirco-level and I’m never going to take a dominant McDavid series for granted. Although I basically did when this series was going on because the Hurricanes desperately trying to avoid a sweep consumed most of my mental bandwidth and it’s normal to not pay attention to the “other” series when your favorite team makes it their mission for you to question your own sanity every other night.

Overdramatic dialogue aside, now that I’ve got both series tracked with a more objective eye, let’s get into some of the details.

Carolina/Florida Recap

First off, I think I speak for all Canes fans saying thank god they avoided a sweep. Not that it matters because they ultimately lost in the end, but getting rid of the low-hanging fruit for every unfunny amateur comedian in the sports commentary circle felt like breaking some kind of hex. It is weird because they played worse in this series than they did when they got swept by Florida two years ago and yet I think the mood among the fanbase is better than it was then. I’m sure getting flat-out beat is a little easier to stomach than when every game is decided by one goal. There’s fewer “what ifs” at play and you can more easily identify areas where you need to improve instead of convincing yourself you were right there & were just a bounce or two away from turning the series around. Winning Game 4 the way they did probably helped too.

The expectations for this Hurricanes squad were kind of murky. I don’t think anyone in the fanbase shared Rod Brind’Amour’s thoughts about the team not making the playoffs, but most who saw them projected to be a 100-point team by most models also seemed lofty with how many players they lost in the off-season and the number of unknowns on the roster. Trading for Mikko Rantanen and then dealing him for futures a month later also tempered some expectations that the team’s peak years are somewhere down the road and not this season. The Canes always get to the dance, that’s never an issue. Doing anything once they got there is another story, but their path was softened through the Metro Division & reality struck hard once they faced this Florida Panthers squad.

Before the series, I said if you ranked all the skaters between both teams, you would go through at least three Panthers before you hit Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Seth Jarvis or Andrei Svechnikov (at the level he was playing up to this round). That also felt generous because Florida’s top scorer was their second line center and they’ve also got Anton Lundell hilariously under-slotted in a third line center role. It was going to take someone playing at top level, in Andrei’s case maintaining what he did in the first two rounds, or Freddie Andersen continuing to play out of his mind knowing he has a small margin for error with Sergei Bobrovsky standing at the other end.

The Hurricanes got this, but it wasn’t until their backs were against the wall in a 3-0 hole.

Starting the series well-enough in Game 1, they entered the third period down 3-1 but looking like they could at least keep up with the Panthers top guys. The Canes issues were self-inflicted up to that point, but a senseless delay of game penalty followed by a quick Panthers power play goal started a downward spiral that lasted over the next three games. There was a brief reprieve in the second period of Game 3, which quickly faded after Florida opened the third period by scoring five, yes five, unanswered goals en route to another blowout win and a potential sweep.

This is where I & other fans reached the breaking point, in a series most of us expected the team to lose. It’s one thing to get beat, getting blown out and having your best player getting chased around in the closing minutes of a 6-2 loss with nobody coming to his defense is what makes you tune out. There is a perception that this team is “soft” because they’re not big, don’t always finish their checks or have anyone that anyone on the opposing team is really intimidated of. I’m not sure if that player exists in today’s NHL, but the last thing you want to see as a fan is your team losing and getting bullied in the process. These Hurricanes have done a lot to debunk the “soft” allegations, especially against Washington where they didn’t let a bigger team push them around & they’ve battled through some tough games all year long. What they showed in Game 3 was a team that lost their bearings, playing with more frustration than focus. Almost if they accepted that they were in over their heads and were just there to take their medicine. Even if you believe the team over-achieved, heading into the off-season losing like they did in Game 3 would have left fans with an awful final image of the season.

Not that the way they lost in Game 5 was any better, but the way they played in Game 4 & started Game 5 showed something that at least I was looking for all series. After playing two of their worst games in the Brind’Amour era, they were able to scrap it and execute their gameplan on the road to keep their series alive. Some of the lasting issues were still present, they essentially won the game 1-0 and had to battle for any high-danger chances in front of the net. They still couldn’t complete a breakout pass against heavy pressure unless Florida gifted them a turnover, but they didn’t let any of these things rattle them, matching the Panthers physicality and killing off all five of their power plays. More importantly, Aho & Slavin were the two best players on the ice, which was something that I desperately wanted to see at least once in this matchup. It was just one game and it was elementary in the grand scheme, but for me personally it was a much-needed refresher to break the mindset that this is a soft team. Being a “soft” team is less about playing physical & fighting for me as it is battling through adversity when the going gets tough. The Hurricanes I saw for Games 2 & 3 left me very concerned about their mindset there, but the team that showed up for Games 4 & 5 gave me something to be hopeful about with the core of this team going forward.

Speaking of Game 5, most of this review is going to focus on that because it’s where the Canes early sins of this series came home to roost.

Statcap

Ranking the Hurricanes problems is tough because they’re all connected, but for me it goes like this:

1. Inability to create from their own zone or break the puck out.

2. Talent (obviously)

3. No reliable offense in the middle-six

4. Personnel

Going by the AllThreeZones stats, both teams had similar profiles with them going in somewhat different directions this year. The Hurricanes are a better team off the rush now (top-10 in controlled entries), but most of it comes from their play in the neutral zone with their defensemen picking off passes & reloading or forcing a turnover. Their breakout of choice is still aimlessly flipping the puck out of the zone or looking for a tip play in the neutral zone. This is where I think the forwards and defensemen are more of a connected problem because it takes two to tango with breaking the puck out & this is still a “chip and race” team with how they start plays. Florida went to school on it early in the series & put made life hell for Carolina’s wingers with getting the puck out. Even if they could, Florida would just tag up and make the Hurricanes start over again. It didn’t directly lead to a lot of goals after Game 2, but it smothered most of Carolina’s attempts at offense and added to their frustration level.

The Panthers on the other hand have gone in the opposite direction. Nobody in the league dumps the puck in more than them (except Sam Bennett’s line) and they’re an above average team with breaking the puck out with control. They pick their spots with when they want to push the pace and it’s what makes them more dangerous than other teams that spend a lot of time in their own zone. They can survive shifts where they get hemmed in and when the time is right, they can get a chance going the other way. Note how many shots the Panthers had off defensive zone exits compared to Carolina despite them breaking the puck out with possession 51% of the time. Florida made their exits count while Carolina could only get chances with speed if they poached for a turnover, something they did well in Game 4 & early in Game 5.

Both of Sebastian Aho’s first period goals came off misplays from a Panthers defenseman in the neutral zone and even Logan Stankoven’s goal in Game 3 was off a neutral zone turnover that led to a quick-up. It’s good to have these in your arsenal, it’s just that this was the only way Carolina could generate any rush offense. This is typical against Florida, completely shutting down the transition game has been their bread & butter this year. No team gives up fewer shots off the rush and it’s even more difficult to connect on any passes against them against their arsenal of mobile tree-like defensemen, which is why poaching for a breakaway is your best bet most of the time.

Carolina got that early and led the game 2-0 heading into the second period. Playing aggressive in the defensive zone, getting nine shots off Florida turnovers (more than they had in the first three games) and mostly limiting the Panthers chances to low-percentage jam plays in front of the net. Then one of the early sins creeped in, a power play that generated nothing ended with Jesperi Kotkaniemi taking a retalitory penalty, Florida answered with a power play goal not even 10 seconds later.

After that, the advantage Florida had with their breakout game started to add up and it played a huge role in Evan Rodrigues’ game-tying goal. There’s never a lot of play off the rush in Florida games but this was an exception with Florida basically getting a free controlled brekout while Carolina was forechecking them.

Florida brought the puck back into their own zone off a botched zone entry attempt by Carolina, so there’s strike one, Bennett’s getting chased the entire time and Jones has Jordan Staal in his face when he makes the long breakout pass but the Panthers were never really out of their element on this play. Tkachuk flew the zone, so Florida’s got a numbers advantage up the ice with Staal & Stankoven playing so deep on the forecheck. Martinook gets back but it leads to a miscommunication with him and young Nikishin at the blue line, as they both go to the same guy and Rodrigues has a free zone entry after Tkachuk takes the hit & it’s a two-on-one against a frozen defenseman from the blue line in. I killed Martinook for this when I saw it live and I’m still not sure what happened here, but it’s something that happens when you’ve got one team playing connected & the other out of sorts. Some teams might have just flipped the puck out of danger there once they felt the forecheck pressure, but this is one advantage Florida had over Carolina going into the series that ended up being the deciding factor. Especially when you compare it to Carolina’s breakout vs. Florida’s forecheck, which played a role in the go-ahead goal.

This shift is why I’m hesistant to blame only the defensemen for the poor breakouts because the forwards have just as much of a role and these are three of Carolina’s better ones. Burns & Slavin have a one-man forecheck to deal with that turns into a disaster because they’re either not anticpating the intensity that Florida’s attacking them with or just panicked under pressure. Needless, Burns gets swamped, passes his problem to Stankoven who gets mauled and they run around in their own zone, getting a gift with Barkov missing the net on a point-blank chance. Even after that, there’s no play to be made because everyone is chasing where the puck is and all they can do is play hot potato with everyone expending a lot of energy hunting down loose pucks. Slavin finally ices it and the Panthers score on the ensuing faceoff.

This is one of those instances where I’m not sure what they could have done differently because Florida just bombared them with everyone crashing the strong side & Slavin was probably exhausted when he iced the puck to boot. There’s going to be times every game where you’re under duress and have to get rid of the puck out of desperation, but it didn’t even seem like a successful breakout was an option here for Carolina despite having their top defense pair & three of their better forwards on the ice. I don’t think Brind’Amour needs to re-teach them on how to exit the zone, but their wingers did an abysmal job of getting pucks out of the zone this series & this was a recurring problem. Taking nothing away from Florida’s forecheck, they’re the champs for a reason, but you use moments like this a measuring stick for where you can get better & this stuck out like a sore thumb.

Then there’s this moment:

Verhaeghe’s game-winning goal is at the end of the clip and most of the focus was on Barkov taking Dmitry Orlov’s lunch and while that was an elite player just imposing his will, I do want to focus on a few things that led to it. This was an AWFUL matchup for Carolina with Barkov out against their fourth line & second defense pair. Last change doesn’t help you much when you’re rolling four lines with continuous action, especially when you can’t advance the puck in the neutral zone, so Florida was able to sneak their top line on while Carolina’s regrouping with their fourth line still out.

Unlike the sequence before the Rodrigues goal, Orlov doesn’t receive much forecheck pressure but he’s also got no play to make with the puck & quickly gets it to an out-numbered winger for a tip-in. We’re good from here, right? We’ll just keep the play deep and get a line change or something to regroup. Instead, Bobrovsky stops the puck, Carrier takes a poor angle as the F1 & the Panthers make a calm and controlled play to exit their zone. Their entry is cut-off at the blue line but the bad matchup is still there and Florida is more than comfortable with their top line playing on the forecheck. You saw why on this goal. It’s small things like this that kill you against good teams & it was fitting that this was the play that ended the Hurricanes season.

Individual Performances

full stats available at allthreezones.com

• The Bennett line was a nightmare for the Canes to deal with and it goes beyond the physical play. Tkachuk is still one of the best passers in the league even at 65% and both Bennett & Verhaeghe are quick-strike scorers. They’re the kind of line that can break the game open against Carolina, but they didn’t really need to in this series because their whole team was firing on all cylinders. Still, the majority of their rush offense came from this line (13 shots to be exact) and Bennett was the one carrying the puck for most of the entries. This is a part of his game that doesn’t get talked about much because the hits & physical play are easier to notice. The transition game is where this line killed the Hurricanes, though. It’s something I’ve always valued in Bennett’s game and why I think whoever signs him will be happy with what they get for next season at the very least. Even though he’s got the shelf life of SkullCandy earbuds with his playing style and injury history. This is a conversation for another time.

• Aho was the best Hurricane in the series even though he wasn’t much of a factor in games 2 & 3. What he did in the rest of the series, especially in Game 4 was enough for me to put him at the top of the list. I was a little hard on him even in that game because of a couple missed chances where he didn’t drive the net or just missed. He wasn’t sharp there, but he was doing everything else so well. Helping force turnovers in the defensive zone to start rushes, killing penalties, carrying the bulk of the offense while the middle-six langushied. Florida was prone to giving up breakaways, Carolina just needed someone to poach for them & finish. The dam broke for him in the first period of Game 5 & he was one of their more engaged forwards even after things went off the rails. Jarvis & Svechnikov also picked it up the last two games, but Aho was the catalyst and I still think he’s the 1C next year. The support system obviously needs to be better when he doesn’t have it.

• While I had Aho as the top player, Slavin and Stankoven were the two were the two who didn’t have any bad games this series. Slavin was on the ice for only two of Florida’s 5v5 goals and he was his usual stalwart self defensively, but this series also exposed that it can only have so much impact. There was a debate that the Hurricanes don’t have a “True No. 1” and most of that comes down to semantics because Slavin’s a top-pair defenseman. He just might need some help or more firepower next to him if the Hurricanes want to get the full benefit of his play. The TNT panel did bring up that the Canes don’t have that “explosive” high-point producing defenseman. Burns obviously isn’t that guy anymore, neither is Orlov and Gostisbehere is a power play guy you have to shelter. Nikishin could be that guy, but how long until he reaches his potential? Is he Slavin’s partner or should they target another high-end guy to play alongside of him? The Hurricanes have a good succession plan in place for the defense next year with Nikishin and Morrow coming in, it’s just a matter of whether they trust both rookies or want to hunt for a game-breaker. My two cents on it is they need to spend this off-season addressing the forwards before touching the defense. It’s easier to plug and place defensemen in when you have the forwards who can insulate them. The team that has the Hurricanes number being a good example of that.

• Hall and Kotkaniemi were my biggest disappointments for this series, which is a shame because the two played well in the previous rounds. Hall was such a difference maker earlier because there is still a small chance he can be the best player on the ice for you & his lows don’t harm the team that much. This series, his lows drastically harmed the team and he wasn’t doing anything offensively. Kotkaniemi had one fatal mistake with a retaliatory penalty but he was also a zero with producing any offense. Their struggles led to Stankoven playing on the Staal line & while he played great, he was in a “shoot only” mode because neither Staal nor Martinook were ever open as passing options. The only players with a lower scoring chance contribution rate was Jordan Staal’s line, which is also fitting because these two are at the heart of where I think this forward corps needs a shake-up. Staal is seen as the more reliable player, but with him and Kotkaniemi you have two low-offense producing centers eating up almost half the game. The Hurricanes endless quest for a 2C starts and ends with deciding if they want both Staal & Kotkaniemi on the team because they’re redundant at this point.

• Jordan Martinook is usually a reliable player in the post-season. His lines win their matchups and he pots a few goals while being menace on the penalty kill. He was scoreless this series, had the lowest scoring chance contribution rate among all players on both teams, his line was under 45% in Expected Goals and his penalty kill unit with Staal gave up five power play goals. Considering how good the Panthers third line was, this was a major part of the Canes struggles. He also led all forwards in five-on-five time on ice despite all of this. If I’m going to go after the coaching staff for anything, this would be it.

Final Takeaways

Cup aspirations were out of reach for this Hurricanes team. The roster isn’t a finished product and they had some things break their way to keep their playoff streak alive. The low-money gambles they took in free agency paid off, they got a nice rookie season from Jackson Blake and their succession plan on defense to replace Skjei & Pesce worked to a point. From here it’s just about getting better, which they have the assets and cap space to do so as soon as next month.

I do think there’s an over-arching issue with this team’s breakouts and how much it’s holding them back when they get into a tough series. For the past few years, they’ve been the worst team in the league at exiting the zone with possession and it hasn’t been a big deal because they win enough for it to be something they can work around. I always looked at how Florida approaches zone entries, they dump the puck in as their bread & butter, but the ability to attack off the rush is there when they get the green light. You could argue that the Hurricanes might have not had the personnel to do it consistently this year with Burns in his current state & the forwards not being the best support options. I don’t neccesarily agree with that because their defensemen can all move & Nikishin is only going to add to it.

I never know if their inability to break the puck out is strategy or just bad habits. They don’t spend a lot of time in their own zone & play most of the game from the their own blue line in, so this might be something in their game that they’ve just by-passed for so long & it’s easier to play with the game downhill. Like I said earlier, I don’t think Brind’Amour needs to do a crash course with the team on how to exit the zone, but going from 32nd place to 15th could go a long way to adding another dimension to their game. Upgrading the forward corps is the first step to doing this.

All in all, this was a weird season for them. The wins always came in bunches and there were stretches of the team treading water with a .500 record in between. It was interesting to watch as a fan. I can’t say I enjoyed every part of this season but there were enough things happening to keep me interested. Necas going on a tear to start the year, the team’s offense coming to life early, Mikko Rantanen’s three weeks with the team follows by them rattling off nine straight wins with Mark Jankowski scoring at a goal-per-game rate. Then they started losing again after clinching a playoff spot and won the first two series in 10 games before this series hit them in the face. Again, there was enough things going on to keep you interested even if you didn’t particuarly enjoy what you were watching. The Hurricanes can sell hope for a little bit and the front office will give us a few new players to look forward to when training camp rolls around in September. Maintaining the level of success Florida has right now is tough, but this series gave the Hurricanes an idea of what the standard is and how to reach it.