Closing It Out
Inside Florida's Game 7 Victory
The draft is today, so let’s not waste any time here before it becomes old news.
Game 7 Stats
The Panthers got back to how they were playing in the Rangers series, controlling most of the game until Edmonton’s push in the third period. Even then, most of that was about not letting McDavid’s line get them. 10 of the Oilers 13 shots came from that line, the two others being a point shot from Darnell Nurse and a quick one off a turnover from Warren Foegele. They didn’t stray too far from how they played from the rest of the series, but there was more of a focus to keep a tighter gap between the forwards & defensemen. They ran the risk of Edmonton flying the zone & getting one-on-one matchups through the high-flip pass, but they prevented most of those from happening. Edmonton had very little clean plays on the rush, the Janmark goal being one of two scoring chances the Oilers got off the rush.
That brings up an interesting trend in this series. Whoever had the edge in rush shots won most of the games, the big exception being Game 1 (and rush chances were tied 8-8 in that game).
Series Trends
You hear it on broadcasts all the time; “if you win the neutral zone, you win the game.” Edmontons’ one-dimensional offense made this especially true this series. They could create chances off the forecheck, but 11 of their 14 five-on-five goals were off the rush, including the last four goals of the series. Florida was halfway to the finish line if they could eliminate that part of the Oilers game. They were doing a good job not letting them carry the puck in at will for most of the series, Edmonton was just getting too many chances off sloppy offensive zone play from the Panthers, not allowing them to get setup & leaving their defensemen on an island to defend the rush. Cleaning up that part of their game was the first step.
Gustav Forsling had his best game of the series, breaking up three Oilers zone entries and allowing only four controlled entries on 11 targets. The defense took a backseat with the zone exits this game, focusing more on tying up sticks and letting forwards recover loose pucks for skate-out exits instead, so he didn’t have the best Game Score in my tracking. I thought he played outstanding, though. This was him at his best, playing centerfield and giving Ekblad only one read to worry about while he takes care of the main threat. He also got a stick on one of the Oilers few rush looks of the game.
This was one of the few times the McDavid line got a rush look and also a rare moment where the Panthers showed a passive look in the neutral zone instead of having more players applying pressure. Not Forsling’s most impressive play because Draisaitl & McDavid had to navigate through a few Panthers sticks to get through to him, but it’s just one example of how dialed in he was for this game. After the slip-up on the Janmark goal, Florida was not going to let them get any free shots in at Bobrovsky.
I haven’t looked into if certain goalies are better when facing shots off the rush or the forecheck because both have their drawbacks & I assume there isn’t much of a difference. That and “rush shots” can include anything from one-and-done looks from the outside to breakaways while shots off the forecheck can include tricky shots with a screen or one-timers where you have to react quickly. Bobrovsky just seemed unbeatable if the play was coming from within the offensive zone & a sieve if it was off the rush. No team wants to get burned off the rush, but I do wonder if Florida thought they had this series won if they could force Edmonton to play the cycle game. It’s a risky proposition because they spent so much time defending to close out the game, but the Oilers hadn’t proved they could beat Bobrovsky if they had to work within their blue line. Shots off the forecheck are low-percentage by nature, so it was a risk worth taking with Florida anticipating a third period push from the Oilers.
That’s where the game within the game got interesting.
McDavid’s Offense
Reviewing McDavid’s offense, he had a solid night despite no points. He had four controlled zone entries, two leading to scoring chances, 4 shots, 2 scoring chances & 8 setups, 2 of them being scoring chances (all of this being five-on-five data). That’s not McJesus game, but a good game for most players (and probably one Florida would take given their season was on the line). He had one contribution off the rush, which was the assist to Draisaitl I clipped earlier. Two of his entries led to scoring chances, but they weren’t directly off the rush, so if you’re Florida you absolutely take that & run.
If McDavid’s line was going to beat Florida, Evan Bouchard & Mattias Ekholm were going to have to play a huge role in it. Bouchard was the guy open most of the time, contributing to 16 of Edmonton’s five-on-five shots and he came close to scoring a couple of times. He’s easily the second most dangerous player in this five-man unit with how Draisaitl was going in this series, so it was another risk for Florida, but their top priority was not letting McDavid dance. He gets double-teamed on the entry here & gets run into by Barkov (which opens up the lane to Bouchard as Florida’s sorting out their coverage) and Forsling eventually takes him as he tries to cycle high. Edmonton sent two guys to the net, so Florida also has two defenders there, which doesn’t leave him a lot of options & the play gets stifled.
Sometimes you have to win the perimeter to get into the high-danger area & the McDavid line was trying their hardest to make use the real estate Florida was giving them high in the zone.
McDavid is double-teamed after recovering the puck, which leaves Bouchard open at the right point again & he gets the puck to the net with some traffic in front. Florida’s a little scrambled on the recovery once Ekholm gets it but Barkov gets over in time to make the pass to Nugent-Hopkins a little more difficult and Verhaeghe gets a free exit out of the zone. Edmonton can’t forecheck him because everyone’s at the net and it’s a burned shift for their top line. The Barkov line was a tough matchup all series long for McDavid. They didn’t dictate the play, but they did a hell of a job of mitigating chances & preventing damage, which is the name of the game when you’re defending a lead against an elite line. Edmonton could get away from this matchup later in the game when Florida started icing the puck, but there were some missed opportunities here.
Edmonton gets their loaded top line (Draisaitl w/ McDavid & Hyman instead of RNH) out against two thirds of Florida’s fourth line after an icing. I’m not sure what the designed play here is, but McDavid didn’t touch the puck once in this entire sequence. Ekholm & Bouchard play catch at the points for what seems like forever & all three forwards play this like there’s a point shot coming until Draisaitl gets free from his check to be a passing option. McDavid’s in a battle with Kulikov the entire time & there’s no real opportunity for him to do anything except maybe come out high to cycle or go to the net. It was a nothing shift, but I felt like it was a missed chance for Edmonton to maybe tie the game given the matchup. Goes to show how tough it is to get anything against Florida even off a faceoff win.
They got to the inside of Florida’s defense a few shifts later when Bouchard found McDavid in front, which led to that ridiculous sequence between him, Hyman, Forsling & Bobrovsky that everyone has seen by now. That felt like Edmonton’s best chance of the game because it probably was, but there were a couple other opportunities during crunch time.
Once again, it’s a point shot from Bouchard that starts all of this, but McDavid gets a deflection on it & just misses. That was his best scoring chance of the game, which Florida will take because it means he didn’t get anything clean. The cycle begins again, but Barkov is there to block Bouchard’s second shot and Edmonton’s next chance comes from Ekholm getting a rebound off a bad angle shot from McDavid. This is why I think the forecheck shots are Bob’s strength because he has more insulation from the defense and can still get over to make the initial stop even if he was playing injured. Forecheck shots have a higher chance of getting disrupted, so it’s tougher for a forward to make a move or pick a corner on you. This also took a long time for this to develop & Ekholm was the only threat Bob had to worry about here.
All in all, McDavid was on the ice for 29 shot attempts & 22 of them came from the defense. The term “controlling the game” gets thrown around a lot when a team heavily outshoots the opposition & that’s true to an extent but forcing the other team’s top guns to play how you want them to is another way to do it. If you’re wondering, “why didn’t they just carry the puck in?” They did, as I showed in the first clip here, but they couldn’t get anything directly to the net unless they stopped & cycled. They could still get chances, they just weren’t from McDavid himself. Even then, this came down to the margins, as a seven game series should.
Again, this was their best chance of the game and the Oilers had to work really hard to get there. Full marks to Florida for getting off the mat after the last three games to have this performance.
Final Thoughts
I honestly have no idea how the league will try to copy Florida like they do with every Cup winner. I’m sure there will be the message about grit & everything, but that’s always been a truism in hockey. Not every team can make that Matthew Tkachuk trade & Sasha Barkov’s don’t appear in the draft every year. I do think there’s something to be said about how good their foundation has been the past 3-4 years, though. Even with the coaching change, they’ve always had the ability to be an explosive team & that part of their game never left. They have such an easy time with plugging guys into their roster, having a role for them & getting decent to great results across the board, especially the forwards. It starts at the top with Barkov.
I also think there’s something to be said about the minimalist approach on their defense. They have their bedrocks with Ekblad & Forsling, but they bargain shopped for the depth pieces & the only one they spent term on was Niko Mikkola. Montour’s their lone offensive d-man but the other five all fit that chamelon type of role where they can do whatever you want them do. They can all eat minutes, are good enough with the puck & can play the simple game. I’m guessing it’s easier for them to fill out these spots with their forward talent, but it’s going to be interesting to see what to do to fill these spots. It’s a big year for defensemen in free agency & the Cats have three guys potentially leaving.
Was it just me or did putting Draisaitl & McDavid on the same line have diminishing returns? I get it in theory, but with so much of the offense coming from the points, Draisaitl’s skillset felt kind of wasted out there on the top line & he looked like he was struggling to begin with. That and the Oilers weren’t getting anything from three lines after they did this, which is always the issue when you do this. RNH having a quiet series at five-on-five didn’t exactly help, though.
The playoffs end with 55% of five-on-five goals coming from plays that start off the forecheck/cycle compared to 45% off the rush, which was the same average last year. I wasn’t sure what the final numbers would be because there were some real grind fests in the first round, but the average eventually evened out. Again, all about balance.
I’ve said a lot of good things about Philip Broberg & how he played, but his on-ice stats are pretty ugly despite some good microstats. Wonder if some of his strengths don’t translate over because part of being good at defensive zone retrievals/zone exits is having forwards who can turn them into offense. We’ll know more in a year.
I wrote an article about this Panthers team for McKeens last year when they were in their mid-season funk. They were a weird team then because they had very good five-on-five and special teams numbers overall but were losing in some absurd ways. Basically they would outscore teams 3-1 at five-on-five and lose by giving up 3 power play goals in a night and then having the reverse happen to them next game. They were also one of those teams that dominated when the score was tied, killed teams when they had a lead and got steamrolled when they had to play from behind. Kind of sounds like this series, huh?
Thank you to everyone who subscribed to All Three Zones this year. I’ll still be remaining busy through the off-season since the NHL decided to cram everything into the last week of June, but it will probably be more short-form stuff until the dust settles in free agency and whatnot. Reminder that if you enjoy these stats, they’re available through Patreon or at All Three Zones.