Elevating Ehlers

Nikolaj Ehlers' fit with the Hurricanes and his uniqueness as a UFA with a chance to be better

I mentioned in my last post that I didn’t feel great about the Hurricanes forward group, but that would change if they did something like sign Nikolaj Ehlers or made a trade. Not even 24 hours later, Ehlers is a Hurricane and the vibe around this move has been unanimously positive. They signed him at a big ticket for six years at an $8.5 mil cap hit, but he fits the bill of what they currently need in their endless quest for top-end talent and goal-scoring.

The Hurricanes also really needed something like this to happen as a morale boost to the fanbase, if anything. Not that they should base their plans around that, but this was a rough 14-ish months and it was shaping up to be an underwhelming off-season with limited options. They had Jake Guentzel but cap reasons led him going to Tampa Bay, they took a big swing at Mikko Rantanen and he was only on the team for a few week. They did well to get out of that situation, but the whole narrative about top players not wanting to stay/sign in Raleigh was the popular refrain this off-season. It just sparks this defeatist mindset that there’s no hope in the team getting better because stars don’t want to play here and it makes discussing anything about the team exhausting because everyone just assumes the worst like it’s some veil keeping them from disappointment.

It was heading down that road again with the top free agents staying with their current teams and Mitch Marner getting shipped to Vegas the day before free agency. Ehlers isn’t the star Marner is, but he was the best available player in this class and the gap after him was pretty large. Carolina would have to scour the trade market or bank on Stankoven, Blake or even Nadeau being a fringe top-liner as soon as next year if they wanted to take the next step. Ehlers slides in and bumps everyone down into their proper slots while also giving them some freedom to try a Jarvis or Stankoven at center since the wings are a little deeper now.

Ehlers himself is a pretty interesting player. He’s never been considered a star and is solidly in that second tier of guys who are exciting to watch but have one thing or another keeping them from that superstar level. I highlighted Ehlers a couple years ago looking at guys called “Microstat All Stars” and he was easily the best example of it. He’s regularly among the best in the league at producing controlled zone entries, exits, setting up scoring chances, playmaking along with a lot of other stats. He is super easy to notice whenever you watch the Jets and he’s had his share of games where he looked like the team’s best player. The one thing keeping him from breaking that glass into superstardom is point production, along with some semi-regular time on the injured list.

He’s a pretty unique case as far as a high-end free agent goes because his raw point totals are still good, hovering around that 70-75 point-pace with his 74-point pace last year being one of the best of his career. He’s also regularly in the top-30 in forwards in even strength points per 60 minutes with last year being his first season outside of it since 2019. I always assumed the whole perception that Ehlers could do more if he wasn’t held back by the coaching staffs in Winnipeg was overblown because he still gets good minutes with spell duty on the top line, until I looked at how much he played there. He averaged only 16-17 minutes a game with his even strength ice-time only in the 12-13 minute range. That is bizarrely low for one of your best forwards and almost 3-4 minutes less than what Mark Scheifele & Kyle Connor played. There were some seasons he played closer to the 14-15 minute range, but those were also his higher producing seasons (2020-21 namely).

It’s doubling confusing when you look under the hood at some of his other stats. Longtime Jets fan & Ehlers supporter Garret Hohl has discussed this in more detail, but I’ll give you the cliff notes. The Jets did better as a team when Ehlers was on a line with Mark Scheifele compared to when Kyle Connor was on that line. They scored more goals, controlled the scoring chance battle more, gave up fewer goals, etc. Everything pointed to Ehlers being the driver of success on that line, but he rarely played a full season along Mark Scheifele, instead being placed in more in the second/third line role with lesser players. This could be the Jets trying to spread the wealth, Connor having chemistry with Scheifele & nobody else or just a lack of trust from the coaching staff, but it’s been a perplexing issue for a segment of the Jets fanbase.

So the idea is that Carolina can just plug Ehlers in alongside Aho, have him play at the same level and get more of a reward for it because he’s playing on the top line with top power play minutes instead of on the second line. I looked to see if there was any precedent for this and it was tough to find a direct comparable because most of the players looking to get elevated are young players in their early 20’s or fringe NHL-ers who need a chance elsewhere. Sometimes it didn’t take a trade for it to happen, just a roster spot opening or a coaching change. It was tough to find a comparable for Ehlers because he has played & produced at a top line rate for five years now. He’s also 29, so this isn’t a kid looking to prove himself or a player entering his prime years. The latter part is where the risk is for Carolina & they’re probably hoping the bump in ice time off-sets things a little.

I came up with a rough list of players who made the jump from the middle-six to the top line (or the third line to the second line some cases) to see if there’s any similar players to Ehlers. After a rough look at it, there was no real perfect comparable.

This is ignoring roster fits and playing styles, but there are some good players you could point to Ehlers as a comparable. One that stuck out to me was Pavel Buchnevich, who still got more ice time in his final year with the Rangers (18:44 avg TOI) than Ehlers did in Winnipeg. Still, he’s a winger that produced at a first line rate relative to his ice time in New York, got traded to a team that fed him offensive minutes and he was a point-per-game player for a couple years before leveling out in to the 60-65 point range. He was also a couple years younger than Ehlers was when the Rangers traded him, so it’s not a perfect comparison.

Another interesting comparison is Kevin Fiala, a point-per-game player with the Wild who played on sheltered scoring lines away from Kirill Kaprizov and his deployment took an interesting turn once he got to the Kings. He had brief stints on the top line with Kopitar before getting shuffled down the lineup for balance or chemistry purposes. Spending more time with the likes of Quinton Byfield and Philipp Danault than the Kings top line & still producing as a consistent 70+ player and threat to score every shift.

Two of the more straightforward examples of a player going straight to prime deployment were Elias Lindholm going from Carolina to Calgary’s top line and JT Miller going from Tampa Bay to Vancouver, becoming one of the better point-producers in the league since that move. I also included Reinhart even though he’s not a great example because he got top line minutes in Buffalo and had to work his way up to getting to Barkov’s wing once he got to Florida. He’s the same age as Ehlers now but younger when the trade happened, but he is the “everything going right” scenario for Ehlers on his new team.

As for the fit with Sebastian Aho, they’re similar players who like to carry & cycle the puck but not to the point where they’re too similar to be complementary. With the Hurricanes creating so much of their offense on the forecheck, they need guys who can be creative in limited space and won’t just revert to the point. This is where I want to talk about Ehlers being a “perimeter player,” which he is in the sense that he likes to play and cycle the puck on the outside. I have an issue with this being considered a bad thing.

To break the defense down, sometimes you need to own the outer ice to breakdown the interior. Whether that’s through movement up high, getting a shot through traffic or getting to the middle in some way, Ehlers can help the Hurricanes do that. I’ve talked ad nauseum about how good Aho is at getting lost in coverage & scoring goals from in-tight. Jarvis is also a dog in front of the net, so the defenders are going to have more than one thing to worry about even if Ehlers plays the perimeter cycle game.

There’s a couple things in his player card I also want to highlight as a fit.

I should mention that this was actually a down year for him at five-on-five. All of Ehlers’ bars concerning offense are usually more blue and further to the right. He usually takes a lot of shots, but creates a lot of scoring chances along with it so this isn’t spamming empty calorie plays. He likes to have the puck on his stick in all three zones and I suspect this is going to take some getting used to if Aho is his centerman, it’s also a reason why I hope they give this some time to work even if he’s goalless in his first 10-15 games or something. Ehlers also likes to shoot a lot and won’t try to pass up for a perfect opportunity, which will help but also takes some getting used to for Aho & Jarvis.

Winnipeg always had a 2C that would let Ehlers do his thing (Namestnikov, Little, Stastny) and while Kotkaniemi fits that description, the Hurricanes signed him to be a first liner. They also have a plethora of wing options for their second line (Svechnikov, Hall, Stankoven, Blake) and don’t need to bump Ehlers down to spread the wealth. Finding that 2C is the next part of the puzzle obviously but they have somthing that can work until then.

The two things I’m excited to see with Ehlers in Carolina is how good he is at creating from the middle of the ice and his quick-strike offense in the neutral zone. The first will help the Hurricanes in areas that already fit their system and add a new wrinkle to it. Ehlers doesn’t like passing to the point and if he’s going high, he’s taking the puck there himself, which can open the playbook a little and allow other guys to shake loose in coverage. The second point is what can add more of a game-breaking element to the team, which they need.

This is why I don’t see Ehlers as a redundnt player even though his playing style might seem that way from the outside. They need more guys who can break the game open in one shift & Ehlers fits the bill. The team has naturally morphed into one that plays more off the rush. The players always had the green light to do this if the opporutnity is there & they’ve simply accumulated more forwards who can play this style and that’s only gotten better Ehlers to go along with a full season of Taylor Hall & Logan Stankoven. Blake is also emerging as a guy who can play this sytle. Ehlers has a lot of the same traits as Necas, he’s not as explosive but that might not be a bad thing if they get 85% of the offense in exchange for fewer games where his line is getting caved in.

The only red flag I have with this signing is that Ehlers is 29 and hitting the age where a natural decline is going to happen one way or another. It might have even started last year. He produced at his lowest rate at five-on-five since 2019 and even his microstats took a step back even if they’re still in the “very good to great” range.

Shot generation isn’t the only thing and his scoring chance rate has stayed pretty consistent despite this, but it is something worth keeping an eye on. His other stats have also remained at a pretty even/high level, so there is hope that the other ones can cancel this out and getting a consistent run with Aho or Jarvis can get him back to the elite shot producer he usually is. Although, if he takes 20% fewer shots in exchange for more scoring chances I won’t be complaining.

There is enough good surrounding Ehlers that I feel pretty good about this being a home run for at least the next two seasons. He’s a great player with a chance to produce more if the full-time promtion to the first line has the impact most think it will. He’s in a pretty unique situation of being an unrestricted free agent in his late-20’s who has a chance to be better instead of immediately hitting a wall. The risk is still there, but he is more of a safe bet at a high price than almost anyone else you’ll find in unrestricted free agency.

You can support this blog or my All Three Zones tracking project here