Final Adjustments

Looking ahead to Game 7

The Oilers climbed the mountain. The journey isn’t over, but they met the Panthers at the summit & we have a Game 7. There isn’t much to say about Game 6. It went about as poorly as you can imagine for the Panthers & their only saving grace is they aren’t eliminated yet. Game 5 might have been their best chance to close the deal because they had a strong finish to that game despite the loss & the Oilers flipped the script on them again when the series went back to Edmonton. This has been the trend in this series. Nothing from any of the previous games has carried over to the next & this Game 7 truly is a coin flip. It sounds silly to say when you’ve got the league MVP on one side, but this is what an even matchup looks like. It just took an odd route to get there.

So…About Game 6

Let’s get the stats out of the way.

This was similar to what Florida did to the Oilers in Game 2, completely shutting off the neutral zone for the Panthers and killing their transition game for 40 minutes. The Panthers like to dump the puck in, so they welcome this challenge but there’s dumping the puck in by choice and “dumping” the puck in because you’re disconnecting going up the ice. Seeing how Florida went the entire first period with only one controlled entry, it was more of the latter. The ironic part is that Edmonton still counter-attacked them.

This is where disconnected play in all three zones can hurt you. Normally a good forechecking team like Florida can make something out of a broken play like this, but Skinner playing the puck messes things up a bit. Verhaeghe drifts to the middle after the defenseman pinches along the wall to keep the puck in & his rim ends up being a contested clear for the Oilers. Verhaeghe then hesitates to get the puck in (probably because he sees nothing but Oilers in front of him) & Edmonton quickly counter-attacks off this neutral zone turnover. Florida usually likes to regroup before they dump the puck in to make sure they have bodies going after the puck, but everything was a touch off & that’s all it takes to burn you.

This ties into the theme of the game & what will probably be the deciding factor in this series. Florida can survive with not getting anything off the rush, their performance on the forecheck is what did them in. They only outshot the Oilers by four in terms of in-zone offense, created only two scoring chances off dump-ins and had only 18 shots off the forecheck that weren’t blocked. Compare that to their comeback attempt in Game 5 where they had 29 shots & 8 scoring chances off dump-ins and it’s clear Edmonton had them neutralized in this game.

This was actually something I was worried about with the Oilers because their zone exits have been awful for most of the series & they were lucky Game 5 didn’t at least go to overtime because of that. They still weren’t great in this game, but the biggest difference was they were at least getting pucks out & recovering if they couldn’t. Basically by playing keep-away in the defensive zone, which isn’t too different from what Vegas did to them in the playoffs last year.

It’s a risky game for the Oilers. They’re not attempting to make a lot of plays out of the zone on the first retrieval & are just waiting for the Panthers to wear themselves out on the forecheck. Constantly hunting pucks down while the defense does a endless sequence of reversals is tiring work and it’s hard for everyone to stay on the same page when the first order of business is just keeping pucks alive. The only time Florida had possession in a dangerous location was behind the net and he had no real passing options except a risky play to Barkov in the deep slot. Eventually they all had to go for a line change & the threat was over, which is a wasted shift for the Panthers top center.

Matthew Tkachuk looked like could be a difference maker in Game 5. This game was a different story. The Panthers star winger had a hell of a time even getting the puck let alone trying to find ways to be effective with it as his line struggled once again. Getting lots of zone time, especially behind the goal line, but not turning it into much.

A familiar theme in this game was Florida trying to make a play behind the net with nobody to pass to. Edmonton got burned badly by this early in the series & in Game 5, so it was probably a focal point for them during practice. Full marks to how Adam Henrique played this, covering the post while Nurse chased Montour and going out high to disrupt the cycle & force a bad shot by the Panthers. Florida went almost half the game without a shot on goal from a forward & this is how that happens. Eventually this sparked some quick-strike offense from the Oilers.

Major props to the Oilers defensive zone play in this game. Florida was laying a body on the first guy to get the puck & they did a hell of a job of taking hits & not turning the puck over. Same goes for their wingers & how they played along the wall with getting pucks out. As the game went on they could start to put more passes together to get some extended keep away shifts from the Panthers.

Florida continued to play panicked offense & the Oilers own game got more composed as time went along. The amount of zone time & entries had diminishing returns for Florida with how little offense they created as a whole while the Oilers only needed <20 shots to put three goals on the board. It’s the opposite of what we saw in the early stages of the series (which feels like an eternity ago).

Game 7

I was surprised Florida seemed so content to play the same way, but they were close in Game 5 so I can understand Paul Maurice thinking they could get a better result if they stuck with it. The games are that close even if G6 ended 5-1. Edmonton is going to need their wingers to have the game of their lives again to complete the comeback. This series has been the best the likes of Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark, Dylan Holloway, etc. have played all season. McDavid didn’t even get on the scoresheet & they still won the game while being in cruise control, which is probably scary if you’re Florida. That and Sergei Bobrovsky has looked human for three games now.

It’s not all bad news, though. Barkov played a hell of a game & did his best to drag everyone else into the fight. Unfortunately he was riding solo, but the game-breaking ability is still there with him. The run of play has also tilted in Florida’s favor at home too, so they have that to hang their hat on ahead of Game 7. They’re playing with a lot of fire, there just needs to be more composure to their offensive zone play & it’s something we’ve seen them do before. Getting the first goal so Edmonton to prevent the rock slide that usually hits them when the Oilers score first would obviously help too.

Personally, I think this is going to be an overtime game. In the past five Cups, we’ve had at least one game go to overtime, which means we are absolutely due here.