Benched. Healthy Scratched. Fourth Line Demotion.
This was the story of Nino Niederreiter last season. The trade that brought him to the Hurricanes sort of marked the part of the 2018-19 season where the team really turned a corner. They had a reliable goal-scorer who could play on both wings and he was signed long-term, replacing the goals they were going to lose when Micheal Ferland left in free agency. The team started winning and he was a huge catalyst for that. Fast forward one year later and he found himself on the other end of the spectrum. His scoring line resembled the player they traded to get him & the only time you would see him on the scoresheet was when he took a penalty.
The most frustrating part was that even though he had a tough year, he wasn’t playing poorly at all. You’d point to the number of chances he would get, how many crossbars he hit and how his line was generally on the positive end of the Expected Goals battle. Fans & the coaching staff knew what they would get from Nieiderreiter every night and it was usually good regardless of how many points he had after 60 minutes. There weren’t many losses where you’d say that his play was holding the team back. He would just go through 10-12 game stretches where he could not beat a goaltender, and that was fine because every other part of his game was mostly in check.
Yet patience eventually wore thin. Niederreiter’s goal total was in single digits through most of January last year & he found himself in the press box even though he had been “doing the right things” at the end of most games. This happened again in the postseason and his name was circulating in trade rumors as a contract the Canes wanted to get rid of. Fast forward to now & he is currently tied for the team lead in goals, playing on arguably the team’s best scoring line.
Niederreiter’s always been one of my favorite players to watch because there’s always been a discrepancy with some of the passing & zone entry stats that I track compared to what the results are when he’s on the ice. He has always been a player who heavily drives scoring chances in his team’s favor despite not generating many rushes through the neutral zone or creating a ton of offense in volume. He is just very good at scoring goals and the results are usually good when he is on the ice.
This is why you can’t be too down on a player like him even when they’re in a slump. You figure the pucks will go in eventually and his point total will be in the 40s come year end.
But what if the bounces keep going against you?
It was so easy to tell how snake-bitten Niederreiter was last year and even then, it got tough to evaluate him as the slump continued. You’d acknowledge that the scoring chances were still there and that’s the most important thing at the end of the day. Then you’d look at how he was stuck in six goals over 40-something games and get frustrated again, forgetting about all the good things he brought to the table outside of goal-scoring. It kind of goes back to how he isn’t the most noticeable play-driver. Yes, you see most of the scoring chances he creates, but he doesn’t lead many rushes on his own, so maybe you don’t remember the puck battles he would win to setup chances or how a few goals were scored thanks to him screening the goalie. It’s a lot of the little things that coaches preach & fans appreciate, but are very far down on the list of things you remember when you’re recapping a hockey game.
Niederreiter basically did his job when it came to everything except scoring goals, which is something the Hurricanes eventually hit a breaking point with. The penalties obviously didn’t help either, but Nino found himself in the doghouse either way and is having his inevitable bounce-back season this year. Doing most of the same things he did last year, but a few more pucks are going in now so he would need to have a 2013 Ville Leino type of drought to find himself back in the press box. Of course, there’s another side to this and Brind’Amour had some pretty good comments about it the other day.
Confidence is usually the easy explanation for things like this, but I sort of understand it from an athlete’s standpoint, especially in hockey where the bounces kind of dictate your results. You’re preparing & playing the same way you always do, but the results aren’t there. After a few games of empty results, the 2 PIMs on the scoresheet start to stick out more than the 4-5 shots you’ve been getting every night. I don’t know if Niederreiter is the type of player who follows this sort of thing, but it bothered the coaching staff enough to sit him and relegate him to fourth line minutes. I can’t imagine it sat well with a guy who is used to scoring 20+ goals every year.
This is an area I don’t really foray into because most of us don’t know what a player is going through. I’ve had bad training days where I’ve had to remind myself that I’m still making progress despite how bad everything feels in the moment, but it’s not like hockey struggles when your process has mostly stayed the same, yet you’re down on yourself because boxscore stats determine what you’re worth and you haven’t found the back of the net in 16 games. The goalposts you hit & the chances you created might frustrate you more instead of assuring yourself that you’re doing all the right things and that this stretch of poor luck is just an outlier. So, as a player, maybe you do start to press more & get away from what your normal habits to impress the coaching staff.
I can’t say that this is what’s going on with Niederreiter, but I can’t help but think that his goal on opening night made a huge difference. Just to get the goose egg off the board early. The team has done some things to help him since then. They’ve got him on a good line with Vincent Trocheck & Martin Necas. It’s a little different than when he was on Sebastian Aho’s wing on the top line because he’s less of a third wheel & more of a play driver even if the other two do most of the puck-handling. Trocheck & Necas have been two of the Canes better players at getting through the neutral zone while Niederreiter has excelled at getting the puck back if they do have to dump it in or disrupt breakouts. You have rush plays, breakaways, rebound chances, cycles, etc. They’re all versatile with the roles they play, so it’s allowed them to have some success regardless of what situation they’re in. Nino’s goal against the Blackhawks last Friday is a good example of this.
The Hurricanes have scored a few goals off situations like this. They never sent the puck into Chicago’s zone, creating this whole sequence off a misplay & a good forecheck from Necas. Niederreiter swoops in as the second guy into the picture while Trocheck & Necas go to the net. This gives Nino some space to setup a low-to-high play & he scores on the shot from the left faceoff circle. It’s a setup you’d typically see on power plays with the 1-3-1 formation, but the Canes were able to create this off a break that happens dozens of times in a game. It’s tough to defend because of how quickly the Hurricanes were able to setup shop & get everyone in position off the turnover. What’s funny is that this chance only went in because Nino shot it off the defender’s skate in front, which is a bounce he probably wouldn’t have gotten last year because that’s just how things were going for him. If the shot went wide or deflected off another Hurricane in front, this sequence would be thought of differently.
This is why Nino is always going to be a tough player to evaluate when he’s not scoring goals. The strengths of his game don’t standout as much as someone like Trocheck because he doesn’t carry the puck as much and he doesn’t have the highlight reel skill of a Martin Necas or a Sebastian Aho. He is just very good at subtle parts of the game that lead to the Hurricanes creating lots of scoring chances in volume, even if he isn’t the one finishing these plays off.