Halfway Point: Toronto/Ottawa
Where each series stands after Four Games
With no sweeps this round, I figure it would be a good time to look at where each series stands through four games. I’m going to post these over the next couple of days as I finish tracking the games & keep things somewhat brief. Starting with the Battle of Ontario (which I thought was today but Game 5 is actually tomorrow).
Series Flow
Most of the discussion about this series has been how unlucky the Sens were in the first three games. I agree with it to a point because the chance count has been so low at five-on-five but it’s gone both ways. Ottawa’s had an edge in territorial play and it’s been somewhat negated from their inability to get any clean scoring chances. This was especially true in Game 4 where they had a major edge in the neutral zone & couldn’t create any direct offense off their controlled entries. The silver lining was Toronto wasn’t getting much either & it opened the door for Brady Tkachuk’s goal off a rush mid-way through the third period. So the breaks go in a close series like this & Ottawa found out the hard way when Simon Benoit scored to put them in a 3-0 hole.
Some of this carried over into Game 4 and Ottawa was able to tilt the special teams battle in their favor to stay alive in the series. Game 4 was also a different animal from the rest of the series because it was a low-chance game with a majority of the offense coming off counter-attacks. This type of play has not favored the Sens, but they did get a pseudo-rush goal from David Perron off a follow that started from a counter-attack play, so when you couple that with their strong performance on the penalty kill all game it was enough to help tilt the scales. You still have to wonder if it’s too little too late because they have to do this three more times now.
Overall Numbers
I wasn’t sure how similar the Craig Berube Leafs would be to his Blues teams from a few years back where so much of their gameplan were these long, controlled connected plays off the rush with a lot of east-west movement. It hasn’t been that this series but something that has stayed consistent from his Blues teams is the chance count being tighter than the shots, but it’s been more about the Leafs defensive game. They have an advantage on some of the higher percentage rush plays (counter-attacks & neutral zone turnovers), but protecting the house and not letting the Sens go east-west is giving them the edge in chances. It’s the type of series where a player like Chris Tanev really shines with the subtle things he does in the defensive zone. He leads Toronto in puck retrievals leading to exits and the Sens have created only three chances against the Leafs blue-liner on 35 entries against. Adaptability is what has kept Tanev one of the league’s best defensive presences in his long career & this series is a great example of that. He has a great stick & can be the guy that kills entries at the blue line, but Ottawa’s preference to carry the puck the ice with numbers has forced him to play a little more conservative & he’s done an excellent job of killing plays or turning a Grade A chance into a Grade B.
This is one of those sequences where it’s probably a net negative in terms of possession, but Tanev does a few things to disrupt Ottawa from getting the chance they want. Getting a stick on the goal line look to Cozens, blocking the pass to the front of the net a few seconds later, preventing the puck from getting to the front of the net again after losing it and then tying up Tkachuk’s stick on the final shot so Stolarz doesn’t have to deal with a deflection. This is a dangerous game to play because sustained pressure & possession eventually leads to a team getting the look they want or a puck going in, but Toronto’s had enough going for them in the counter-attack game and special teams to get by on this for now. They started to tilt the play a little in Game 4, so we’ll see who gets the edge when this goes back to Toronto.
Individual Stats
Matthews has 8 scoring chances at 5v5 and 7 on the power play with only one goal to show for it. There haven’t been a lot of chances both ways & Ottawa’s been able to do just enough to disrupt him so he doesn’t run wild on them. His play in the defensive zone and covering for the defense with breaking the puck out has him as the most impactful player in the series and this is with him leaving some offense on the table. He was better first two games than the two in Ottawa where I thought Nylander looked like their most dangerous player, but the Leafs big players are doing enough to get them through this series. Can they close the deal?
Tim Stützle’s play sums up most of Ottawa’s struggles. Normally a speed demon in the neutral zone with creating quick strike offense, he leads all Ottawa players in controlled entries with 26 (next closest player has 13) and only one of those entries led to a scoring chance. The Sens have had more success on their entries when Drake Batherson is the puck-carrier & part of that is Stützle helping get the puck out of the defensive zone. They can get up the ice with more numbers because a defender usually joins the rush with Stützle back and it’s a higher percentage play. Whereas Stützle’s had a lot of one-and-done looks or plays that end up dying after he passes the puck off. Figuring how to unlock this part of Stützle’s game is one way Ottawa can swing this series, because he’s quarterbacking most of their offense and it’s mostly going to waste.
Is there another player who exemplifies the worker bee role better than Matthew Knies? The Leafs as a whole have done a great job of forechecking, but Knies has led the way on that top line and he’s been a coach’s dream with his decision making with the puck in the neutral zone, dumpin gth epuck in on 20 of his 26 entries and creating a scoring chance 3 out of the 6 times he carried the puck in. Forechecking’s also a been a big part of the series advantage for Toronto, as failed exits have more of an impact on a team like Ottawa that likes to exit with control instead of flipping the puck out & that put them in a hole early in the series.
Unreal performance by Jake Sanderson in Game 4 to keep Ottawa alive, both on the game-winner and his play in general. He’s been a top-three skater in this series since Game 2 and his performance on exits on Saturday night was on another level. 13 of his puck retrievals led to a successful exit and he had 11 of them. Couple that with his nine shots and the sprint across the blue-line to score the game-winner & that is a night to remember for the Sens young defenseman.
Simon Benoit had six controlled entries in 286 minutes of ice time tracked in All Three Zones this year, he has 4 in 69 minutes played in this series. The playoffs are full of surprises.