Skating uphill with Moritz Seider

What tough competition looks like in action.

With the Red Wings finally getting to the “we need to win some damn games” part of their rebuild, there’s been a lot of discussion about how good this team is, notably their top defenseman Moritz Seider. I’m not exactly sure why, but it did spark some interesting discussions about his role, the workload he takes on and how to account for that when analyzing his play. Friends of the newsletter Dom Luszczyszyn and Prashanth Iyer wrote about this over the past month.

Seider’s entire body of work this year has him in the middle of the pack. He’s rates decently in most categories, but not at the same level of some of the league’s elites. Again, I’m not sure why this has caused a stir because it’s only his third season & his team is still finding their way. Part of it is getting caught up in ranking players & wanting “analysis at a glance” that we lose sight of the nuance, especially at the team level. There’s always the rush to judge if a player is good or bad based on a number or how he rates in certain stats, but stuff like this doesn’t really serve a purpose unless we’re talking about Norris candidates or doing player lists in the off-season. Detroit isn’t concerned with that at the moment. They just want to know if he’s doing what is asked of him & if he’s developing.

This is where the discussion of his role comes into play. Analyzing this is tough because matchups are never black-and-white and it’s tough to keep a player stapled to a top line for every shift, especially on the road. Most of the time, your top matchup defenseman plays about 8-11 minutes against the line he’s assigned against & the other 9-12 minutes against the rest of the lineup. For example, Jaccob Slavin played about 7 of his 20 minutes against Jason Robertson & the Dallas top line in their road game last week. Sometimes you get the matchups, sometimes you don’t. That’s why it’s more important than ever to have two reliable defense pairs.

Seider is an interesting case because if you read the article from Dom, you’ll see that the quality of forwards he faces is much higher than the next closest player according to his Game Score model. He also plays a lot of minutes with Detroit forwards who rate poorly defensively. Prashanth’s blog post also shows how much of an outlier Seider is with starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone. Even with most shifts starting on the fly, Seider is taking on a defensive workload reserved for the type of shutdown defensemen you only saw in the late 2000’s. Only three blue-liners since 2007-08 have started more shifts in the defensive zone than he has this year, which is very abnormal usage for a top of the lineup player.

Detroit has a lot of NHL defensemen under contract, but Seider is still carrying a heavy burden on their blue line & they obviously would rather defeer to him if they need someone to quickly get the puck out of the zone or block a shot over the likes of Justin Holl or Jeff Petry. It puts him at a disadvantage when it comes to creating offense & suppressing scoring chances, which impacts how he looks by most statistics. Even if he’s doing things to disrupt shots, which is something I think we can look more into, Seider is still spending a lot of time putting out fires & can’t control the game the same way some others can.

I know some will say “if he’s elite he should dominate regardless, but when you’re taking on this defensive workload it’s a little different. It’s also worth asking if Seider taking a beating in scoring chance/expected goal ledger some nights is “hurting” the Red Wings if he’s not getting outscored or if it’s freeing up the rest of the lineup.

Some of the All Three Zones stats show how this heavy defensive usage is impacting his ability to control the game as much as he used to. Seider was an excellent defenseman at suppressing rush offense & kickstarting Detroit’s own rush game from his own zone.

Seider checked most of the boxes you want out of the modern shutdown defensemen. He stops plays, moves the puck forward & impacted the game to the point where forwards avoided entering the zone on his side of the ice. You can live with the lower offensive stats, as he showed flashes as a passer & that’s an area you can expect to improve as the Wings roster does the same. He was a defensive-minded player with enough puck skills to be dangerous. This year, things are a little different.

While he plays the same aggressive style at the blue line, Seider has to defend more entries and challenge forwards entering the zone instead of picking his spots like he did last year. He is also playing a much “safer” game in his own zone, clearing the puck on almost all of his exits instead of looking to start a rush or a clean exit. The splash plays on offense are still there, in fact they’re a little more impactful from a chance creation standpoint, but you can see the impact Seider’s environment has on his play here. He’s in his own zone for most of his shifts & under duress when he gets the puck. Still making good plays with the puck, but there aren’t a lot of plays to be made in general when he’s out there.

The only thing I would be concerned with is that teams are creating more chances against Detroit when they enter the zone against Seider than they have before. A lot more, in fact. This isn’t always on the defensemen, as sometimes the forward makes a good play entering the zone or the chance could happen on the follow-up play on the initial entry. Sometimes the defenseman has to do enough to impair the shooter if he can’t negate the scoring chance too, because the game is chaotic and you’re not going to kill every play. That said, Seider is giving up a lot on his side of the ice & it’s something the Wings have probably noticed by now, as they watch their games much closer than I do.

Their win over Seattle on Monday afternoon is a good glimpse of what’s going on with their young start defenseman. He played fewer minutes than usual this game, but got dinged up on the stat sheet quite a bit. The Wings outscored Seattle 1-0 with him on the ice at five-on-five while getting outshot 17-28 and giving up almost 2 Expected Goals, which is a lot for only 17 minutes of ice time. He also scored a goal on a clapper that would make Shea Weber proud & was on the ice for a six-on-five goal against on a delay penalty. In microstats, Seattle attempted to enter the zone against Seider 9 times, successfully carrying the puck in against him five times & creating 4 scoring chances when targeting him.

So a lot of stuff happened when he was on the ice, but what did it look like in action? Seattle doesn’t have the top line you target like a McDavid or a Kucherov, but they are one of the better play-driving teams in the league & have a pretty balanced lineup, so Seider had to play some tough minutes despite that. Seeing a lot of time against Beniers & McCann with a decent amount of secondary assignments against Jaden Schwartz & Yanni Gourde to boot. Like Seider did with Seattle’s lineup, you saw a little of everything that he brings to the table with this game & what Detroit is asking of him.

Chances Against

The chance happens at the 15 second mark with Beniers finding Eberle in the slot after circling the net. This happens after Seider engages with him a little & passes him off so he can cover McCann on the rebound. My guess is there is some miscommunication here because Walman stays at the net to cover the potential pass to McCann & the only forward even noticing Eberle creeping in is Dylan Larkin, who is on the other side of the rink. Eberle gets a one-timer chance as a result.

Remember The Athletic piece I linked to about the bad defense of Seider’s teammates. You can kind of see that here. The follow up is a little better, as you see how Seider’s physical game helps Detroit get the puck out of the zone. He was rarely the first on the puck in this game, opting to make contact with the forward for Larkin or Walman to recover the puck instead.

The behind the net looks were a theme for the Kraken in this game & it countered Detroit’s defensive scheme well. The forwards apply heavy pressure if you cycle up high & Seider places a lot of trust in his teammates to cover for him when he goes to the front of the net. He will usually chase the puck carrier & engage with him to the wall or trapezoid, but if he can’t kill the play, Seider usually goes to the front of the net to prevent the rebound while Walman & the forwards are there to prevent any passes. It’s an effective system for Detroit when it works.

Seattle, however, is a tougher team to stop on the cycle. Their forwards are very slippery & they have players constantly in motion. As a result, Detroit had to do more mitigating damage & less of shutting plays down.

The way Detroit defends also opens the door for the offense to get a lot of quick shots off, hoping to pick one off for a counter-attack opportunity or keep everything to the outside. You see here Seattle tries to create from up high to hopefully open something up closer to the net & they get an okay looking chance with a screen from Jordan Eberle, who Seider is battling with in front. This is one of those shifts where Detroit probably gets graded poorly because it started with a botched breakout (although I’m not sure what Seider was supposed to there) and they gave up a number of shots, but they ultimately did what they were supposed to do & lived to fight another day.

If there’s one thing I would be worried about, it’s the rushed breakouts becoming a habit for Seider as he gets older. Although I’m not sure if this is a Seider problem as much as it’s a Detroit problem, because if you’re under duress constantly with no forward outlets, the only option is to rim the puck more times than not.

That said, he had some opportunities to create in this game & you saw what makes him dangerous on the first goal of the game as well as a few other shifts where he got loose in the offensive zone. Detroit is still trying to find a reliable defensive line to pair him with, so he’s been used with a multitude of forward lines & he made quick work of a quick offensive zone shift with Patrick Kane. Mor importantly, he can still be a good first pass & breakout option when he’s not putting out fires in his own zone.

He just hasn’t gotten the chance to play on offense much & if he does it’s likely on a shift where he’s already been out there for 45-50 seconds. Sort of acting as a table-setter for more offensive-minded players like Shayne Gostisbehere. Where Seider might be getting taxed is on entry defense, which is the one area he’s seen the most decline in. Looking at the rushes he’s had to defend, however, it’s a little tough to put the blame on him.

Transition Defense

Seattle created a scoring chance on four of the nine entries where they entered the zone against Seider, three of which they carried the puck in. On the surface, it looks like the Kraken just walked around him at will, but it wasn’t all black-and-white. Sometimes you get beat & have to limit them to a b-level chance instead of one where they have all day to wind up. Seider did that a couple of times, but the big hitters were two things for me. First, it’s that he was always on the ice while the Kraken entered the zone against them unpressured (which is out of his control) and next, is the follow-up plays after the rush.

The entry is way too easy for the Kraken, but Seider does a good job of angling off Beniers after he enters the zone, then the breakdown happens. Larkin picks up the puck while four Red Wings are bunched together, so there’s nowhere to go with the puck except back to the Kraken. Maybe there’s a reversal to Seider open here, but Eberle comes at him pretty hard.

Things go from bad to worse as both Rasmussen & Kane chase the Seattle pointman while Jared McCann (who already scored twice that day) is wide open. Seider appears to take Beniers in front but he’s not blind & quickly switches his focus to McCann because Larkin is out of the play & Walman disappeared into a black hole somewhere in the trapezoid. He does what he can to disrupt the shot but Lyon has to make a save.

The play then continues in the corner with Adam Larsson pinching in & Walman engaging with him while all five Red Wings collapse. Seider, Rasmussen & Larkin all take McCann as the immediate threat with Beniers getting one-timer from alone in the slot. They slow it down just enough for where Lyon can square up on the shot & Beniers has to get rid of it pretty quickly so he doesn’t pick a corner or make it a super challenging save. Still, this was a fire drill that started after the initial entry was shutdown.

It started with a poor breakout & was saved with good recognition & disruptive plays from Seider, which was a theme in the third period.

Here we see how exits & entries can be linked as Detroit makes a quick play up the wall that Seattle quickly turns into a rush (with some really poor forechecking by the Wings forwards). Seider is targeted once again & follows the Kraken forward all the way down the offensive zone before finally gets rid of the puck on a hope play. The play is over here, right?

Nope. Except instead of a poor breakout, Seattle just beats them to the puck & attempts to go high-to-low to get the forwards away from the front of the net, creating some one-on-one matchups down low. They want to draw Seider away from the slot & do so as he engages with Eeli Tolvanen up to the hashmarks befor he has to get rid of the puck. Their own defenseman, Justin Schultz, makes a good switch with the forward Bjorkstrand, giving Seattle an extra man below the goal line & allowing them to continue their cycle while Seider is drawn away from a dangerous area. They get an open shot with Bjorkstrand on a pass from behind the goal line, but he’s slightly off-balance & it’s a tough play for him to finish. Still the look they wanted & it came off an entry against Seider.

Every play here is tough to break down from a black-and-white scenario (except that some of Detroit’s forwards stink at defense). I doubt the Wings coaching staff looks at these plays & says Seider had a bad game becuase he was on the ice for six scoring chances, two of which came when Seattle entered the zone against him. They’re probably more concerned with how the entry started & the lack of forecheck pressure more than anything. Seattle had them in their own zone for awhile & eventually good players make plays happen.

If there’s any concern with Seider, it’s how much he is defending and if that’s the best use of one of your top players. He has good habits in the defensive zone (always scanning, not chasing the puck, recognizing where the play is going, conserving energy so he can play on offense when needed), but you always wonder if he has more to give as a play-driver with how many of his shifts are spent covering for his teammates. That or look to get more out of pairs 2-3 to take advantage of having one guy soak up all the defensive zone minutes.

Cliff Notes Summary

• Teammates & where your shifts are spent can have more of an impact than matchups over a full season.

• Microstats measure a defenseman’s tendencies well (entry denial%) but the result-based stats are more prone to team effects (chances against).

• Seider’s been dealt bad hand with amount of ground he has to cover, but he’s making the most of it & playing his role. He doesn’t have a Cale Makar-like skillset, but there’s maybe 2-3 defensemen in the league who can be put into this situation & look dominant (hint: one of them is in Boston). Where he rates in models shouldn’t be a concern to the Wings right now, but I’m sure it’ll turn up again when it’s time to pay him this summer.

• More work can be done to measure chance limiting/disrupting, but it might have more of an impact in a small sample enviornment (i.e. the playoffs). Predicting now that Seider is going to be every TV analyst’s favorite player if Detroit makes the dance.

• Detroit’s going to be a team that’s prone to wild swings in their results because they give up a lot of shots with a heavy emphasis on disruption & counter-attacking. Seider is a huge part of that, obviously but they also have one of the cross-seam pass rates in the league in the All Three Zones data. High-percentage plays that can flip a game on its head, but it’s very difficult to excecute it every night. Right now they’re on the bubble & it’s likely staying that way until April.

• Player rating discourse is my least favorite part of being in the analytics sphere.

• I want to have a talk with whoever taught Detroit’s forwards how to defend.