Stanley Cup Final Game 2 Statcap (sorta)
When a slog turns into an instant classic
One of the main reasons I like doing what I do is it sort of forces me to watch the game with a more rational lens. There are plenty of games that are dreadful to watch as a fan & sometimes I want to see if things were really as bad as it looked live. Most of the time it is, but you also see more of how it was a couple of things that went off the rails & give more credit to the other team for making things difficult. Especially when we get to this time of the year. It’s kind of a double-edged sword because getting to be reactionary and emotional is what being a sports fan is all about. At the same time, I can’t wade into the hot take fests or pull the “they don’t want it bad enough” card when things don’t go right without it feeling disingenuous. It’s just not what I do with how I cover the game.
That said, it was looking like a big challenge for me not to do that watching Game 2. As a hockey fan, there is no worse situation than watching your team trail by two or more goals late into the game. Every single possession looks like they’re skating through cement and anything resembling a scoring chance disappears within seconds because the hockey gods like to mix in some sardonic torture while you helplessly stare at the screen. I don’t like telling fans how they should feel, but I try to act as the voice of reason to a fault sometimes & the Hurricanes were making that very difficult for about 35 minutes. Then things changed without 10 minutes to go in the third period.
They only registered one scoring chance here, but this was after a stretch where Carolina had only three even strength scoring chances over 30 minutes, while playing from behind no less. This was looking like one of those games where they would get all of their chances early, couldn’t capitalize and Vegas would dictate the terms after that. This shift didn’t result in a goal, but it was the first sign of life they showed in a long time, so it gave the fans some sense of hope.
Not only because they were creating offense, but from how they were generating it. Not all sustained zone time is created equal, because shots off turnovers or a few seconds after you gain possession are more dangerous than ones where you methodically work the puck around the zone, as we saw in this game. Look at the shots here, Ehlers quickly goes low-to-high and K’Andre Miller doesn’t waste anytime getting it to the net, Staal also wins a box-out against Hanifin to get the deflection & make this a semi-dangerous chance. They retrieve & after a bouncing puck sequence, Jarvis goes across the ice to Ehlers for another quick shot. Then they get another quick one after Walker keeps the puck in at the point, also making his way to the slot for another layer of traffic while Jarvis posts-up at the side for a rebound. The sequence ends with a couple of shots into open nets from bad angles, but they get Vegas scrambling a little bit & they start to show some cracks in their armor.
Again, they didn’t score but this was the first time Carolina’s offense looked more like a five-man unit and it wasn’t coming from skating the puck around the zone trying to skate around the perimeter. Instead it was a lot of quick passes, quick shots & players off the puck in motion to give the defenders more to think about & they got a couple of shots into open nets with the goaltender scrambling (albeit from awkward angles). Again, no goal but a sign of life. A couple shifts later, Stankoven scores forcing a turnover off an offensive zone draw & the fanbase has some belief again.
Managing the emotions in this series has been a gauntlet to say the least. You can make an argument that both teams could be up 2-0 right now because they’ve had stretches in each game where they controlled play. It’s truly a real best-on-best matchup where every game is oging to be decided by who makes the last mistake or the final play.
Dimitri Filipovic & I discussed this at length on the PDOCast yesterday, but it’s also a low-event series in terms of shot volume. There’s been a lot of blocked shots, neutral zone shots & fanned shots that inflating the totals in the play-by-play, but it’s been more of a low-volume, high quality series for both teams. Vegas moreso than Carolina, but even the Canes have been pretty selective with the shots they’re taking. Perhaps that why the shift I posted earlier was such a huge swing for them in the game, because it was the one time they weren’t being overly methodical with trying to get the puck to a dangerous area & just getting quick shots to the net. Vegas has also been getting rid of the puck before they’ve had a chance to cycle so it’s gone both ways.
This series has been wild, unpredictable and a style clash, so I’m expecting it to go the distance. Who has the advantage with the series shifting to Las Vegas?
Game 2 Stats
A few things changed from Game 2. Most importantly for Carolina, they cleaned up their exits and didn’t let Vegas clog them up in their own zone. The tradeoff was they were weaker off the rush and had to play more of this game trying to create in the offensive zone, which opened the door for Vegas to counter-attack them a couple of times. Both of VGK’s goals came off what started as nothing plays from their own zone that turned into breakways, the second one coming off a failed power play. I do want to highlight the exit on the first goal, though.
This is such a good play by William Karlsson & it requires a lot of trust in him & Marner being on the same page. The Hurricanes get the situation they want initially, forcing a turnover and hemming Vegas in for a few seconds. Even after Hall turns the puck over, they get a quick shot to the net with traffic. Karlsson makes a great retrieval behind the net, skates it around and reverses it to another forward one-handed when he sees two Hurricanes on him. Honestly, in most situations there is no way this play results in a dangerous chance given the numbers Carolina has back & how many VGK guys are in their own zone. In most cases it’s an excellent exit to retrieve pressure, but Howden gets a step on Walker & scores. Howden gets the spoils, but I was really impressed with Karlsson on the breakout, giving Marner a lot of space to clear the puck & make it all happen.
This also illustrates how close this series is going to be. Carolina did what they wanted to do here with both defensemen staying back to prevent the jailbreak pass from happening. Walker just got beat, which can’t happen but it’s also the Final against a team that’s firing on all cylinders, so it’s going to happen at some point. Similar to the goals VGK scored in Game 1 off the cycles where they were just a step ahead of Carolina.
If you’re the Hurricanes, you’re probably happy with your defensive performance overall, as Vegas didn’t create any high danger passes, which killed them in Game 1, but now VGK is getting rush looks so it’s becoming a question of what type of offense they’re more comfortable giving up. The rush looks they gave up were the result of their guys just getting overpowered, but you can say the same thing about the goal line/cycle chances too, so this will be interesting to watch the rest of the way.
Carolina’s own offense also took a step back from Game 1 with a couple moments of them having to manufacture some offense out of nothing. There is no better example of this than the Mark Jankowski goal and I want to take a minute to appreciate how many things had to go right for that to happen. First, it came off an defensive zone faceoff after an icing. Tortorella sent out Eichel’s line against Carolina’s fourth line & they win the faceoff. Rasmus Andersson & Ivan Barbashev have a miscommunication while William Carrier also goes to the point to run interference. The puck goes to the left corner where the only players close to it are Frederik Andersen & Eric Robinson. Jankowski & Carrier bolt out of the zone and this happens.
This was the fourth line’s only shot of the game and it comes off an unbelievable play by Carrier. Between catching the puck, dragging his skate to keep the play onside, having a 210+ lb defenseman tackling him and making the pass on the seat of his pants, this had to be a 0.05% probability type of goal and it might have saved Carolina’s season. Carrier has done a lot of unappreciated work these playoffs with how good he is in the doldrums of the game. He was brought in for his size & physicality, but he’s always had some skill to his game even if he doesn’t get to show it much in a forechecking role. He could put up 10 points all season & still contribute with how much he helps tilt the ice & this is the series where he was going to have a moment to shine.
While this got them into the game, Carolina’s dormant power play coming to life is what won it. What was interesting is how both goals came off some pretty basic plays that they were failing to execute early on. They never lost the zone after the faceoff win on the 3-2 goal with Jordan Staal tipping in a Shayne Gostisbehere shot, another moment where things had to fall into place because he was 100% shooting for Aho’s stick before it got lifted. The second goal was a one-timer look from the top of the zone to the left circle that hasn’t looked dangerous all post-season. They got a little more space at the point this time & Jarvis aboslutely wired it past Hart to win the game. If Vegas still had Brayden McNabb available, I’m not sure if either goal happens, but Carolina’s power play needed some kind of spark and maybe just getting back to basics was it.
Individual Stats
Game Score might not reflect it, but Shea Theodore has been the best player on the ice all series. He has been a nuisance for shutting down Carolina’s rush game, playing on his off-side no less. Aho hasn’t been able to find a way around him and Jarvis has gotten baited by trying to cut to the middle against him & it has killed a lot of Carolina’s rush atttempts. He also handled a monster workload with McNabb’s injury, starting 24 of Vegas’ exits with 14 of them leading to controlled breakouts.
The 4th line is definitely getting undersold here, but again that was their only shot of the game and sometimes looking at things from a volume perspective isn’t the best. On the flipside, Nikolaj Ehlers posted 12 shot contributions with only one of them being a scoring chance. Some of that is a little misleading because his line was generating chances where he was the tertiary setup guy, but Ehlers impacts the game differently than your usual game-breaker. Sometimes you’re going to have games like this where he’s limited to setting the table from everyone else & others he’ll be the monster off the rush you saw at times in the playoffs. Which one will we get now that the series moves to Vegas?
Slavin/Chatfield were a mess and it didn’t look any better in the rewatch. Chatfield’s been the biggest culprit with things being too slow in the offensive zone, as he always has to take a second to either settle the puck down or deciding where to go next & that is what kills possessions in the playoffs. Slavin almost cost them the game with a ridiculous turnover that led to the Vegas disallowed goal. I’ve worried about Slavin’s health this year, but the decision making from him has been straight up bizarre.
The matchups will be interesting to follow, as Brind’Amour has put Staal against Eichel, which worked in his favor this game while Stankoven has gone Karlsson & Marner with the Aho line getting the spoils of the matchup (which is still Hertl/Stone). The Marner line has been a problem for Carolina all series & they’re the perfect counter to the Stankoven line with how high in the zone they like to play on the forecheck. Stankoven & Blake can forecheck, but the rush chances are what makes them lethal & Marner’s line has caught them on the wrong side of the puck a few times. Marner’s also a very disruptive defender, so these three haven’t been able to skate away from coverage as easily as they usually do. Granted, part of that is because Hall has been a mess with the puck but VGK’s also forced the issue with him. He’s at the top of the list of guys who need to be better along with Aho.