Stanley Cup Final Scoring Chance Recap

Breaking down the scoring chances from Game 1

Florida hasn’t had a lot of “ugly wins” this postseason, but they are inevitable when you’re going on a long run. They’ve only been outshot three times this Spring & Saturday was only the first time they won one of those games, recording only 18 shots with Sergei Bobrovsky earning a 32-save shutout. We really haven’t seen the Panthers get a win like that since they closed out the Hurricanes in the Conference Finals last year. This year’s team has been a completely different animal, so it was surprising to see them record a sub-40% Expected Goal to start this series. You’re going to have some “ugly wins” in a Cup run, but there was more to this game than Bob playing out of his mind.

Statcap

https://x.com/ShutdownLine/status/1799877383962411187

So, my breakdown of the game was similar. I thought Edmonton carried the play early on, especially in the first period, but my chance count ended up being closer compared to the arena tracker. Part of that was me being a little more stingy on rebound chances & maybe being a little generous with some of the chances Florida got. Still, Edmonton had 17 chances (24 including power plays) and got shutout, which backs up the “Bob stole this game part.”

Where it’s different is that I credited Florida with more chances & they were very opportunistic with them. I counted only 20 shot attempts for them (I don’t count blocks and remove some shots that are clear fans/misfires), and 14 of them were scoring chances. You don’t see this happen very often and I wouldn’t bank on it continuing, so Florida probably doesn’t want a repeat of this for Game 2.

Where my breakdown of the game really differed was I thought Barkov had a great game but by the stats he got “caved in.” Oilers outshot Florida 23-9 with him on the ice and they created a lot of offense against him. In my tracking, I had him with six shot contributions, four of them being scoring chances, three controlled entries, two leading to scoring chances & three controlled exits. Not the typical dominant Barkov game, but I thought he was the catalyst for their limited offense and had an impactful game despite the on-ice stats not being pretty. Basically, he did a lot of good things while a lot of bad things happened while he was on the ice.

There was a pretty big divide in how he played, as he got a lot of praise from the media but some that looked at the statsheet weren’t as impressed. I usually find this kind of talk counter-productive, but it provides two different perspectives on the game. If the Oilers score on one of their 17 chances, he might not get as much praise, but the Panthers didn’t have their A-Game & Barkov managed to make an impact despite his team not carrying play. Florida getting 14 chances on 20 shot is an exmaple of that.

I thought a fun way of breaking this down would be to look at the chances for both teams. What did Edmonton do to create so much offense against this stingy Florida team. Will this carry over to Game 2 and what can they do better? Likewise, how repeatable is Florida’s performance?

Edmonton’s Chances

By my count, I had the Oilers with 8 rush chances, 7 off the forecheck, 2 off faceoffs, 3 deflections & 1 rebound (which I was a little generous on). The only ones I would consider borderline high danger are the deflections & the close-range but non-threatening shots from Warren Foegele & Ryan McLeod. Almost everything else is pretty good quality from the Oilers, including a couple of cross-slot looks. There’s a few things they can go to school on if they can continue to get these looks.

One thing you’ll notice in the game recaps is that Florida exited the zone successfully at a higher rate than Edmonton but with possession less frequently, which means Florida had a lot of flip-outs that cleared the blue line but weren’t clean & the Oilers could re-enter the zone quickly if they wanted. They were able to do this a couple of times & got a great chance from McDavid going down the wing against Ekblad.

They also caught Florida playing a car-crash style of hockey on their forecheck (The Tkachuk line especially) and got some rush looks out of it. The execution on the Draisaitl-to-Holloway one could have been better, but this is probably something they’ve already looked at. The one they’re probably shaking their heads about is the McDavid one-timer late in the third off a Barkov turnover. If that goes in, it’s a different game.

That’s part of what makes this matchup so fun to watch, though. It’s a true best-on-best matchup and Barkov’s line had to weather a storm to “win” their matchp on the scoreboard. I will say something that stuck out from the first chance of the game was that the Barkov line gave up some real Grade A’s, but did a good job of not letting it turn into a tidal wave of Oilers chances.

Zach Hyman gets a point-blank chance off a misplay that hits Bob square in the mask & Edmonton gets a long shift out of it where they try to work the perimeter. The forwards do a nice job of letting the Oilers work the boards but staying tight in front of Bobrovsky. They’re not really chasing any loose pucks until the Oilers have to change, so it’s a dangerous game to play. You’re burning any energy & any hope you have of creating offense, but it’s about not letting the Oilers top line kill you when you’re in a situation like this. Florida did a pretty good job of this, as the Oilers only had a couple of shifts with multiple chances. Giving up the first high danger chance is still an issue that they’re gonna have to sort out for Game 2, though. Edmonton’s has the skating advantage in their bottom-six and against Florida’s defense, so I would expect them to keep getting the initial rush looks as the series goes on.

How did Florida counter them?

Florida Chances

Yes, Florida scored two goals on their first three chances. Edmonton had at least seven by that point. The Oilers probably “deserved” a better outcome at that point, but what isn’t great news for them is that Florida played better later in the game, especially in the third period. Verhaeghe’s goal was off a great exit & rush by Barkov, but that was their only chance through the first two periods. In the third, Barkov’s line created three chances back-to-back against the Oilers, all of them coming against the “McDraisaitl” line and two of them were off faceoffs. This is why I have some pushback against the “Barkov got caved in” crowd. The first two periods weren’t his best, but his line came up big to close out the game.

That said, Maurice got away from matching him up against the McDavid in the third unless it was for an offensive zone draw. Edmonton’s top players were probably gassed at that point & Knoblauch might have pulled the emergency switch a little too early with loading up his top line instead of sticking with what was working in the first two periods.

I would expect Edmonton to go back to their normal lines in Game 2 & hope for some better results. Interested to see how Florida plays their matchups because Barkov’s line technically “did their job” of not allowing a goal & countering with one of their own, but McDavid is tougher to keep off the scoresheet than anyone else they’ve faced so far.