The Art of Balance

A closer look at Nikolaj Ehlers deployment in Winnipeg

A couple months ago, we talked about the Hurricanes signing Nikolaj Ehlers and how exciting that was. I didn’t get into as much detail as I wanted to in that post because I found his whole situation with the Jets fascinating. The cliff notes version is that he produced & played like a top line forward but was rarely given first line minutes. I thought this was something Winnipeg fans over-exaggerated with him until I actually looked at his ice-time with the Jets & saw that he had only one year averaging over 18 minutes a & game has regularly been under 16 a night the past few seasons. With minimal time on the top power play unit to boot.

So yeah, he’s an interesting case. I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that he’ll continue to produce like a top liner if the Hurricanes feed him those minutes, given that he’s 30 years old. I don’t even think it’s an open and shut case that he’ll be on the Hurricanes top line. They would be foolish not to try him there, but this is also the team that put Dougie Hamilton on the third pair for a year with second power play time in favor of Justin Faulk. You never know how things are going to shake out when the games are actually played.

Putting that aside, I wanted to dive into the nuts and bolts of Ehlers’ deployment in Winnipeg because it’s an interesting case study into roster construction & what we could expect in Carolina. The root of the issue is that the top left wing spot in Winnipeg has been Kyle Connor’s to lose ever since he emerged as a regular 30-goal guy. His chemistry with Mark Scheifele gave him the edge for that spot over a more possession, pass-first player like Ehlers. The Jets also used complementary players like Alex Iafallo in the right wing spot before Gabriel Vilardi came into his own this year, so this had Ehlers stuck as a second line.

However if we go back two years ago, we can get a decent sample of what top line Ehlers looked like, getting about 400 minutes of ice-time alongside Mark Scheifele while Connor was out with an injury. The duo were lethal to say the very least with the Jets scoring over 3 goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 while they were on the ice, giving up fewer than 2 goals again while controlling 54.8% of the Expected Goals and 55.7% of the shots. Last year, Scheifele spent only 67 minutes of 5v5 ice time with Ehlers and the Jets outscored their opponents 3.05-2.19 while him & Connor were on the ice together while controlling only 48.1% of the shots and 51.7% of the Expected Goals. Basically getting the same level of production as he got with Ehlers while sacrificing some defensive & territorial play.

Meanwhile, Ehlers & his full-time center Vlad Namestnikov posted very good numbers while they were on the ice together, outscoring opponents 2.76-1.48 at 5v5 while controlling 52.9% of the Expected Goals. Not as dominant as the Ehlers/Scheifele combo, but the Jets could spread the wealth a little with the top line outscoring their problems & the second line controlling play, anchored by Adam Lowry playing the shutdown role below them.

Whether Ehlers playing away from Scheifele is a him problem or a Kyle Connor problem is up for debate. Scheifele probably doesn’t get enough credit for how unique of a player he is as a 1C. He’s never considered one of the league’s best goal scorers but he is a regular high-percentage shooter & one of the few who has been able to maintain that over his career. He can outscore a lot of the Jets problems from how good he is at creating quick-strike offense, regularly one of the best players in the league at turning entries into scoring chances. It’s understandable why the Jets look to Kyle Connor as the natural fit on his wing over Ehlers, pairing the natural goal-scorer with your top center over another guy who likes to carry the puck.

Sebastian Aho isn’t the finisher Scheifele is and his tendencies are a little different, but there are some similarities between the two. They love carrying the puck, prefer being the go-to guy on zone entries and like going into the one-man cycle mode in the offensive zone. Taking a closer look at how Ehlers & Scheifele gelled together in 2024 could give us a glimpse into what the Hurricanes new top line could look like.

Ehlers & Scheifele

The Jets situation with Connor was a factor in Ehlers not getting much time with Scheifele, but some coaches are also hesitant with having two puck hogs on the same line. The chemistry isn’t always immediate and you can have moments where the play dies from one of them trying to do too much on their own. Scheifele plays somewhat of a high risk game & Ehlers playing style can be perceived that way too. So you can see why the Winnipeg coaches might have had second thoughts when putting these two together.

It’s hard to say that they were a bad mix when you look at the numbers they posted together. What did it look like in action, though? I tracked one of their games from 2024 to get an under the microscope look at things & found a few clips of some other ones. In the full game I tracked (12/30/23 against Minnesota), Ehlers had 4 shots, 3 scoring chances, 1 setup, 4 zone entries, 2 carry-ins with two entries leading to chances while Scheifele recorded zero shots but had 5 setups with 3 of them being scoring chances along with two controlled entries. Vilardi was their linemate this game and he pitched in with 1 shot, 2 setups with one coming on a scoring chance to go with one zone entry. So a modest statistical performance given what we’re used to seeing from them.

I’m pretty sure this was one of the earlier games where they were together because the chemistry was a little off. Ehlers really likes to do the long, diagonal breakout passes out of the zone & those weren’t always on the mark. Him & Scheifele also have some conflicting tendencies with leading breakouts in the defensive zone. The Jets did better when Ehlers leads the exits, but Scheifele likes to play as the low forward so the two would be too close together to get a good breakout going for any rush chances. Ehlers love of the give-and-go game after entering the zone is where chemistry & time were needed the most because that’s where most of the plays fell apart.

There were signs of something special, though. Mainly off the forecheck, which I was a little surprised by. You can see the bones of it here early in the third period. The Wild had just made the score 3-2 and the Jets went back to their top line to counter. Here you can see some of Ehlers’ strengths with creating his own shot from below the faceoff circles.

This is great work on the forecheck with Scheifele getting the initial pressure & Ehlers retrieving the puck to setup with Vilardi behind the goal line. Vilardi does a great job of battling for position & Ehlers gets a pretty hard shot from on the edge of the scoring chance area. A turnover up high ends the play, but the Jets backcheck well to kill the threat & you can see the bones of what this line can do. They start to tilt the ice more on their next shift.

I was hesitant to show this one because they don’t get a great chance here, but they kept the Wild pinned in after getting their two-goal lead back. One thing that stood out to me with this line is they got a lot of second and third opportunities to re-rack their offense if the first play didn’t work. They did a great job of recovering the puck so they could setup something else if the first attempt didn’t work. Ehlers in particular really likes throwing the puck to an area where one of his teammates is close by so they can keep resetting their offense like this. Also notice how all three forwards are involved in trying the high-cycle, including Vilardi who has kind of been pigeonholed into the net-front role. Morrissey’s skating also allows them to do a lot more with their offense because he covers so much ground at the point. It’s not a game-breaking shift, but one that really helps when you’re playing with the lead.

We see more of this later in the period with Ehlers showing some elements the Hurricanes will love.

This is another good example of this line resetting after their first play gets broken up. They have to dump the puck in but Ehlers takes a good route on the defensemen to get to the puck first & they can go to work. We see Morrissey’s mobility come into play here too with him walking the line and letting the Jets continue the cycle by getting the puck deep from a different angle. Scheifele & Vilardi have a nice brief exchange before the Jets go around the clock to setup Ehlers for a one-timer. We talked about using the points rather than always taking the shot from there in the last post & this is a good example of it. Ehlers off-puck play here in the offensive zone helps set it up with him recognizing where the play is going & making himself a one-time option once the puck gets to Morrissey. The play ends with a penalty on Minnesota, but you can see some of the chemistry starting to take shape with this line.

That improved as they got more games together.

We finally get a controlled entry clip and we see some of Ehlers tendencies that his linemates probably need time to get used to. He likes carrying the puck into traffic, but he will quickly dump it off to the boards if he sees you in his peripheral vision and you have to prepare for that. Scheifele’s in a good enough spot to keep the play alive, but they have to concede the zone and start over once the cycle starts to fall apart. This is where they can really go to work.

Watch Ehlers trial the play while Scheifele backchecks. He notices the puck gets turned over and goes to a perfect spot for him to start a give-and-go off the entry. Scheifele then does what makes him a special player by manuvering around the defenseman behind the net & threading the needle to Vilardi in front of the net for a good chance. Not a rush chance, but one born out of strong transition play & this is becoming another theme with this line. Sometimes you think putting the high skilled players together is going to lead to a lot of quick-strike offense both ways, but that wasn’t the case with this line. They did a great job of tilting the ice and creating when space was limited, which should excite the Hurricanes about Ehlers’ potential fit with Aho or even Seth Jarvis.

For the last clip, we have a goal from Ehlers off a broken play. He comes in off a line-change, tries to start a give-and-go from the middle. It doesn’t work, so he just fires the puck at the net and it beats the goaltender. This is one of the few times Ehlers gets to attack from up high because he’s coming off the bench while Vilardi & Scheifele are down low, but something that’s been consistent in his A3Z card is he loves to shoot and make plays from the middle, especially in the high slot.

Now that we’ve looked at the good, let’s look at a couple of clips where things didn’t go as well. This game against Tampa gave us a look into why this line has been more of a “break glass in case of emergency” thing for Winnipeg rather than a regular fixture.

This is a controlled breakout that gets messed up in the neutral zone. This line typically does well with recovering after they lose possession, but they have a bit of a tougher matchup here against Tampa Bay. Ehlers tries to lead in Scheifele but they’re not on the same page & Scheifele stays aggressive on the puck by going after Tampa’s regroup attempt. Ehlers then chances & Vilardi follows, which leaves a big gap in the middle of the ice for the Lightning to get a rush going. Ehlers does a pretty good job tracking Point into his own zone & force Tampa to go east-west, but they still get a good shot away with a chance at a rebound.

Not a disastrous sequence by any means, but you can see some of the moments where this line wasn’t on the same page offensively & it feeding the rush the other way. They seem to be at their best when playing that half-rink game in tighter spaces, as all three forwards have different, crafty ways of breaking the defense down and getting to the interior without needing to make some highlight reel play. The most encouraging thing for Carolina & Ehlers potential fit with Aho is that he didn’t need to quarterback everything in the offensive zone. The entries & cycles are his specialty, but if he needed to be the F1 he could do that and if he needed to play the high forward he could do that too.

So there’s a lot of pros with putting Ehlers on the top line. He can play whatever role you want and play his game even if there’s not much open ice. He reads off his linemates well and doesn’t need to do everything if other guys can pick up the slack. Carolina has a horse to pair him with in Aho, the right wing spot could be a little more complicated depending on where Seth Jarvis slots. They have a couple of potential solutions on the right wing with Logan Stankoven & Jackson Blake, but they’re also smaller than Vilardi even though they play a similar role. Filling that Morrissey role is also going to be critical because of how many plays he can keep alive. Slavin can skate with Morrissey but doesn’t have the same offensive skillset. K’Andre Miller could play that role if they can unlock some of his offense & Alexander Nikishin remains the wild card here.

The cons with putting Ehlers on the top line is that the chemistry might not be immedate with how quick he is with dishing the puck off to an area & starting give-and-gos off the rush. Those take a lot of time & precision to get right and it’s uncertain if Carolina’s going to give him that much runway.

Scheifele & Namestnikov

The alternative option is letting Ehlers drive his own second line like he did in Winnipeg. He’s had a few different centers over the years but his main one last year was Vladlasiv Namestnikov. He’s someone I refer to as a “gap filler” because you usually pair him with elite skill players and he does the things they don’t do, like going to the net, getting open, staying close to them to make support plays, etc. If this sounds like Jesperi Kotkaniemi to you then you’d be half right. They’re similar players in the sense of how they take up more of a secondary role but the intricacies of how they play is a little different.

You can get an idea of what Namestnikov’s game is all about from his player card. He’s the opposite of a puck hog, making efficient plays rather than needing to do everything. He doesn’t shoot much but a high percentage of the shots he takes are scoring chances and he’s skilled enough to carry the puck when someone sets the table for him. Basically the definition of a complementary player. This sounds a little like Kotkaniemi, especially during his runs with Martin Necas. How similar are the numbers?

Similar in the sense that they’re both skilled complementary players, but different in how they go about their business. Kotkaniemi plays more on the perimeter and his sloppy play in the defensive zone prevents him from being someone who can really help drive a line. He is somewhat of a chameleon where he takes the form of whatever form his linemates are, but right now he’s someone you have to work around in your lineup rather than a guy who can help. Namestnikov isn’t going to drive your line, but he isn’t going to do anything to actively harm them. I’m not sure if I can say the same for Kotkaniemi right now, although we go into every season with him looking for a fresh start.

Let’s look at some of Ehlers clips with Namestnikov. How is it different from Scheifele and what would a version of this on the Hurricanes look like if they go this route?

There’s a few things that are similar to how Ehlers played with Scheifele & Vilardi, he’s still getting 2nd & 3rd chances to reset the offense in the neutral zone and hanging out in the weeds by the side of the net for one-timers on plays that go to the point. What is different about this line is Ehlers gets more frequent puck touches, especially on zone entries. Whether he’s poaching them for himself in the defensive zone or starting a give-and-go, Ehlers is more of a “go-to” guy on this line and there’s more rush opportunities coming off his stick.

The in-zone offense is where you can see Namestnikov being more than just a passenger here. He’s not exactly a pretty skater, but he is a bull when it comes to getting after loose pucks and knows Ehlers’ tendencies well, especially after the puck is turned over. He’s ready to receive those passes and make a bee-line to the net once the puck is coming his way. With Ehlers you have to be aware that the play is never really over, so having good awareness is a key to being his center. Namestnikov can at least do that. Ehlers even scores a goal this way, poking a puck off a loose breakout after a net-front scramble with Namestnikov in front & Perfetti on the other side.

There’s also more defensive zone play from this line in general with less “ice-tilting” than what we saw in the Scheifele clips. This can be a good thing because it means more rush & counter-attack opportunities but it’s also where you don’t want Ehlers spending a lot of his shifts. This line also kind of took a beating in this game on the shot counter despite doing some pretty good things on the ice, so there is a trade-off in possession. That said, the main downside to deploying Ehlers like this is his ice time. Carolina rolls their lines a little more equally than most teams, but when the game gets tight, is he going to be one of the trusted players? If Kotkaniemi is the guy centering him it’s hard to say because he is the one who ususally gets the shaft when the game gets to crunch time.

Whether or not Kotkaniemi is his center is also something we don’t really know right now. He could be the 2C again heading into camp but we’ve also heard Carolina toss the idea around of moving Jarvis to center or possibly Logan Stankoven. That creates a new look at this spot, but we’ll know about this in a month.

That said, there are benefits to pairing Ehlers with a more complementary 2c, the main one being that he gets a lot of puck touches and gets to run the offense his way. Again, the downside is going to be how much he plays with this deployment and if it holds him back.

Final Thoughts

This is all likely just overthinking & overanalyzing but I did want to touch more on Ehlers’ situation in Winnipeg because there’s probably more nuance to it than I’m letting on here. Carolina’s managed to stay in the same standings spot despite all the roster turnover & this is the first time they’ve made some real major additions in awhile, so I wanted to get a closer look at one of their newest additions before we get into training camp mode.

On a tangetly related note, I’m a fan of the new road jerseys and how this team refuses to use the same logo on both uniforms. I always thought the red Hurricanes logo from the Stadium Series sweaters looked better than the classic logo anyway. Not going with a grey or an off-white color feels like a missed opportunity if they were gonna go outside the box, though.