Topsy Turvy
Recapping Games 3 & 4 of the Stanley Cup Final
We might have a series. The games themselves have been competitive, but this was looking like a brutal sweep for Edmonton before Saturday night’s game where they got all of their pent-up frustration from the first three games out en route to an 8-1 win. Chances are this is just a footnote in a five game series win for Florida, but this has really been a bizarre series.
Nothing from the previous game has carried over to the next & the Oilers had multiple opportunities to flip this series in all three losses. The narrative has been that they “deserved” better than being down 3-0 in the series, especially in Game 1. I kind of hate that talk because it makes it sound like Florida deserves no credit for anything they do well & washes away all of Edmonton’s problems as bad luck. Some of that is true! An NHL team doesn’t make it to the Final while going 3+ games without scoring a five-on-five goal without a few things not breaking their way. On the other side, the nuance of the game gets lost when you only look at the results. It’s two good teams playing eachother, the margins are very thin and it doesn’t take much to change the complexion of the game.
Game 1 was a good example. The prevailing thought from then was the Oilers carried play, got stonewalled by Sergei Bobrovsky & there was a divide on Barkov played because he setup the game-winning goal, gave up none but his line gave up a lot of scoring chances to the Oilers. His line did not drive play for the first 40 minutes, but they got one rush where they caught Edmonton out of position & they scored on it. Not something you can bank on continuing, but Barkov’s line responded with a great third period to close out the game (after Edmonton pulled the trigger on switching their forward lines).
That’s the thing with looking at one game in a SCF matchup & expecting trends to continue. It’s still a small sample size in an even matchup between two good teams & they both have weak areas that can be exploited. Case in point, Edmonton shouldn’t expect to be shutout if they create 24 scoring chances again (as they did in Game 1). In Game 2, they created only five chances for the entire game because Florida flipped the script on them. The patterns of each game have been so different and that continued when the series went back to Edmonton.
Games 3 & 4
Let’s start with Game 3
Some of the problems you run into with stats is you see one team had more of x than the other and you think “oh they deserved to win.” I fall into this trap too, because it’s usually the case over larger samples. Over a single game, we’re really just looking at what happened in the game (albeit through a more detailed lens than Expected Goals). Edmonton led in scoring chances 16-11 & created most of their offense through long, sustained possessions in the offensive zone. Florida, on the other hand, had more shots off the rush and created most of their chances off the forecheck. They also spent less time with the puck, so you could argue they were more efficient with their limited possession time at even strength, especially with 10 of their shots coming from defensive zone sequences.
Florida also made quick work of when they got this offense, scoring three goals over a six-minute span in the second period and making the Oilers climb a mountain to get back into the game. They got a goal off the forecheck from Vladimir Tarasenko (that might as well have been off the rush because it happened so quick), another goal off a turnover & a two-on-one rush from Barkov & Rodrigues to make it 4-1. Edmonton had to work really hard to create any offense for the rest of the game & eventually ran out of time after scoring twice in the third period in a 4-3 loss. Looking at the chances they got, you can see why the volume might not have been enough.
Out of the plays clipped here, there’s only three chances off the rush & two rushes that directly led to chances (the other four were on prolonged sequences). Foegele’s mini-breakaway happened after Florida missed the net on one of their own rushes & the Hyman/McDavid sequence came off a good exit from the wall to the middle where Hyman could fly the zone. The only problem was he’s not the fastest skater so Kulikov could get a stick on him to disrupt the chance & McDavid is in a joust with Ekblad to get to the rebound. So even their rush chances were disrupted.
The other thing to pay attention to is the clock & the scoreboard. Edmonton created most of these looks early in the second period while the game was still tied & had a flurry around the 12-minute mark. The Holloway chance at the 1:01 mark of the video is the key one, though. It may not look like much, but he had to work his way to the middle to get this chance & it was a little tricky for Bobrovsky with all the traffic (most of it from his own guys). Right after this was the Tarasenko goal. Lundell is the first one on the puck because all three Oiler forwards are stuck in the middle & he gets an easy exit, which is followed by this goal.
The Oilers don’t get another chance for 10 minutes and they’re down three goals. It’s a good look from Bouchard, but Bobrovsky challenged the shot so aggressively & Florida is probably content to let the Oilers blue line shoot as much as possible as they nurse a three-goal lead. Edmonton doesn’t get another chance until Broberg’s goal (which was a sneaky unreal play by McDavid behind the goal line) and they get another one late to make it 4-3, but they ran out of time in the end. Florida dominated the play for 10 minutes & essentially won the game based off that. This was the first time all series Bobrovsky looked beatable, but Florida’s been riding a wave of sequencing shifts together where they get chances in buckets while Edmonton had to work like hell to get anything. Not too different from what happened in Game 1, where they scored on two of their first three chances & that was all they needed. That is a lot to overcome for the Oilers.
Then Game 4 happened.
Looking at the chance count, you might think that this was like the rest of the series and the Oilers were just finishing their chances. That’s true to a point, but the look of the game was much different. Edmonton struggled to get any rush offense going through the first three games & this game was played almost entirely in transition. Counting special teams, they scored six of their goals off the rush, is the same number of total shots that they had. They were carrying the puck in more than they had to play dump-and-chase and finally got some extra offense from the neutral zone. It was only four shots but still, they were struggling to get even one for most of the series.
The dangerous side of this is Florida also got their opportunities off the rush and well…it didn’t matter because they scored eight goals. We talked about Florida having great sequencing in Games 1-3 and what Edmonton did here was exactly that but in the most extreme way possible. They scored three goals on four scoring chances in the first period (right after Florida missed two open nets) and then proceeded to outshoot Florida 24-1 (not counting blocks) with 14 of those shots coming at even strength. Florida didn’t get their second shot on goal until there was a minute left in the period and they were down 6-1. It was all inconsequential from there, even with how ridiculous the finishing has been in this series.
It’s not the most bizarre Stanley Cup Final that I’ve watched, but I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen so many “every mistake ends up being a goal” stretches for most teams. It’s definitely the first time I’ve seen a team take the series lead in overall goal total from just five periods of work, as trivial as that is. If you’re the Panthers you can probably trash this game unless you’re worried Edmonton figured something out tactically. What does the footage say?
If I’m Florida, the only things I would be concerned about is Edmonton’s speed advantage against their defense started creep back in like it did in Game 1. They had a lot of success stretching the zone & attacking them wide early in the game & getting into the zone has been half the battle for the Oilers. Some of the other chances/goals were from poor/soft plays by their defense.
Mikkola probably should have stopped Janmark at the line on the first goal & Henrique scored on a remarkable deflection. Florida’s large gap between their forwards & defense gave Edmonton more chances to stretch them out with long passes out of the zone, catching them stationary on most of these looks. Others were poor plays from being over-aggressive (see Ekblad on the McDavid goal) along with some bad line changes & turnovers that gave the Oilers extra offense from the neutral zone. The only goal I would mark as a major red flag was the Darnell Nurse goal that made it 5-1 because that was a controlled breakout from the goaltender that the Oilers got a 4-on-2 out of. Granted, the game was already getting out of hand at that point.
Some of this comes back to how much they view this as a one-off. It’s been borderline impossible to carry the puck in against Gustav Forsling all playoffs long, let alone score a goal against him. The Oilers got him for three goals & he was on an island for all of them. Forsling has to cover a lot of ground when he’s on the ice with Ekblad, playing centerfield rather than sticking to one side of the ice & it’s made him a very tough egg to crack these playoffs. He can skate well enough to keep up with most & disrupts a lot of plays with his stickwork.
Even if he allows an entry, the forward has to go through a few players before creating anything substantial because he’ll just skate him out of room if he can’t break up the play. Game 4 was the first time it looked like it was too much for him, although part of that was Ekblad chasing hits, the forwards chasing the puck 50 feet away from the defense and his partners getting beat at the line with no support coming back.
Sometimes you get beat, usually not 8-1 in the Stanley Cup Final when you’re up 3-0 in the series, but it does happen. Florida is hoping the trend of momentum not carrying over holds true as this series goes back to Sunrise with a chance to close it out.
Individual Stats & Observations
Since we’re having the Conn Smythe debate again, McDavid has a strong case regardless of the outcome if we’re looking at the full body of work through the entire playoffs. If I had to nitpick, he could be doing better in this series from a chance creation standpoint. Right now, he’s in a three-way tie in chance contributions at five-on-five with 10 (Barkov & Holloway sharing the top spot with him). He is running away with the total if we factor in power play scoring chances, so look for that to be a deciding factor if Edmonton makes a series out of this. He could still be doing more at five-on-five. 15 controlled entries on 28 attempts is good but not Connor McDavid Good, especially after the first two rounds. Same with 20 shot contributions at five-on-five.
On the other side there’s Sasha Barkov, who has seven fewer zone entries than McDavid but a higher percentage of them are with possession (78% vs. 58%). He is also tied for the series lead in shot & scoring chance contributions, which is impressive given Florida’s disadvantage in possession time. Also leads all Florida players in exits with possession, including defensemen so that tells you the work he’s doing in all three zones. The lack of power play contributions is the only thing that can hurt him if this series starts to get dicey, but Barkov is making his case even if his line ends up with an ugly shot differential by the end of the series. He is doing his part.
Speaking of making the most of your minutes, Vlad Tarasenko has made a living off that this series. Leads all players in five-on-five scoring chances with eight & scored a couple goals in Edmonton. Not driving the bus on his line, but providing some high-end talent on the Panthers third line.
For someone who was in the AHL for most of the season, Philip Broberg’s had quite the series. 19 of his puck retrievals in the defensive zone have led to successful exits & he’s been the Oilers best defenseman at preventing controlled entries. I honestly had no idea what he was capable of because their previous coaches treated him with kid gloves. It appears that he can hang & he’s been one of their only defenseman that hasn’t gotten brutalized by the Panthers forecheck.
On a similar note, Dylan Holloway has seven scoring chances at five-on-five this series. Against Dallas, he had 7 total shot attempts. He showed some ability with the puck on zone entries, as he did in a limited sample in the regular season, but I wasn’t sure how much offense you could expect from him even on Draisaitl’s line after watching him in the first three games. We’ll see if he keeps riding the wave after his Game 4 performance.
I’m surprised the Panthers are one game away from clinching while getting this little from Tkachuk, but his linemates have been excellent. Bennett’s been the center of most of the puck play & Verhaeghe is one of the few Florida players who is snakebit right now.